| Shadow banking is considered to be one of the major problems in modern finance.In recent years,academic research on shadow banking has sprung up,and it still maintains its popularity.The scale of China’s shadow banking has developed rapidly,and at the same time,risks have accumulated,which has attracted the attention of academic circles and regulatory authorities.Shadow banking has two sides.On the one hand,it improves the financing channel of the real economy,promotes economic growth and deepens the financial market,and on the other hand,it is easy to break away from the regulatory operation.High leverage,multi-level nesting,and fund pool models are all likely to trigger financial systemic risks.Therefore,this paper studies the relationship between shadow banking and financial stability,which has important theoretical and practical significance.On the basis of combing the literature,this paper studies the definition,causes,characteristics and risks of shadow banking.The shadow bank is divided into two types: shadow banking and traditional shadow banking outside the commercial bank.The liability is derived using the principle of accounting identity."Nuclear algorithm",using the data of 13 kinds of accounting report subjects to calculate,measuring the scale of the shadow banking outside the commercial bank of 2006-2018.The results show that from the end of 2011 to the beginning of 2017,the shadow banking has experienced rapid growth,with an annual growth rate of 57%.In January 2017,it reached a record high of 52.44 trillion.Subsequently,the concept of financial stability and related theories were studied.By constructing a financial stability measurement index system including 12 indicators of macro environment,financial market environment and commercial bank operation,the principal component analysis method was used to synthesize various indicators.,get the financial stability index for each quarter of 2006-2018.The results show that in this time interval,China’s financial stability has been rising in the midst of twists and turns,and the situation is good.Through the analysis of the normative level,several hypotheses are proposed.By establishing the OLS regression model and the VAR model,the impact of shadow banking on financial stability is studied from the static relationship and the dynamic impact to verify the hypothesis.The results show that: in terms of static relationship,the relative size of shadow banking has a negative effect on financial stability;in terms of dynamic response,shadow banking has an impact on financial stability,and the response process fluctuates greatly,and in the later stage of variance decomposition,shadow banking The relative contribution of financial stability has increased.The above results illustrate the negative impact of the process of risk accumulation and the overall performance of shadow banking.Finally,from the perspective of perfecting the supervision mode,guiding the shadow bank to be sunny,transparent operation,establishing risk monitoring and guarantee mechanism,and deepening market-oriented reform,it is expected to guide the shadow banking to foster strengths and avoid weaknesses and develop steadily. |
