Research On Uncertain Factors In Investment Decision Of MY Enterprise Project

With the developmen t of market economy,the intensification of competition at home and abroad,and the acceleration of globalization,project investment as an important economic activity of enterprises has become an important factor for enterprises to prom ote and realize economic growth,and the effects and benefits of project investment decisions have become Many companies must pay attention to the issues of survival and development.When enterprises make project investment decisions,there are often various uncertain factors,which are often difficult to grasp.In the old days,companies used the payback method,the accounting yield method,the cash flow discount method,and the decision tree to solve various problems in investment decisions.Today,these methods can no longer meet the needs of enterprises for complex investmen t projects.Today's project investments often have diversified uncertainties,such as the variability of production costs,the shortening of the market economy fluctuation cycle,and the diversification of products due to the diversification of people's needs.It has become a decision-making factor that people must consider.How to comprehensively consider the impact of these uncertain factors on the efficiency of investment decision-making has become a concern of m any enterprises,and the application of Monte Carlo method in the field of investment decision-making has changed the way people think in investment dec.ision-making.It allows people to simultaneously analyze stochastic models of multiple variables for risk investment decisions.This paper takes the investment project of MY enterprise as an example.Firstly,it introduces related research methods at home and abroad,enterprise project investment decision-making and uncertainty analysis.Secondly,it analyzes the advantages of Monte Carlo method and the basis of traditional investment decision-making methods.On the basis of the uncertainty factor,the Monte Carlo method based enterprise project investment dec:ision analysis scheme is proposed.The Monte Carlo method is used to improve the traditional NPV method,and comprehensively consider various uncertain factors in the enterprise project investment decision process.Finally,the MY enterprise investment project is deeply and systematically analyzed,and the process of MY enterprise using Monte Carlo method for investment decision analysis is simulated by Python language.The NPV evaluation index is used to evaluate the project and the final evaluation result is obtained.This study is of great significance for MY companies to make correct investment decisions under uncertainty and improve investment risk prevention capabilities.