Research On The Transmission Channels Of Systemic Financial Risks And Economic Effects In China

Two-way feedback between the financial sector and the real sector is the main feature of systemic financial risk.China's real economic cycle is going down,total factor productivity is declining,and the rate of return on capital is decreasing.Investment-driven economic development has not yet formed new growth drivers.From the perspective of the financial sector,as the income of the real economy declines,the financial sector often obtains income through idling funds,which contains huge systemic risks.After the promotion of the financial industry regulatory policy in 2017,the idling of funds has been effectively curbed,but new problems have also been exposed,such as increasing corporate bond defaults and rising credit risks.The key to solve the problem lies in clarifying the two-way feedback mechanism between the financial sector and the real economy sector,and choosing the right policy to balance the policy orientation of risk prevention and stable growth.Based on feedback between financial sector and real economy,I establish a DSGE model which contains heterogeneous banking sector.I analyzes the policy and superposition of macroscopic effect,and focus on the financial sector within the feedback mechanism of the balance sheet.The study found that the systemic financial risk conduction with feedback and infectious characteristics: the financial sector can cause the risk of default,deterioration of assets and liabilities influence between financial institutions and financing risk premium between fact.If the corporate sector and the household sector change their investment and consumption,the change will affect the net value of the financial sector and leverage.From the results of risk prevention,regulating the inter-bank behavior in the inter-bank market can effectively reduce the risks of the financial sector and improve the credit environment in the interbank market.However,tighter regulation and tighter liquidity have created a "tight balance of funds" in the financial sector,which in turn leads to a credit contraction in the real economy and a decline in investment and output.