Research On The Factors Affecting Bond Default And Credit Rating Mechanism

In recent years,China's bond market has developed rapidly,and its composition is very diverse,and it has shown a trend of continuous enrichment,which is no longer the same as the initial formation period.In this development process,the bond market has always had a hidden bottom.Before 2014,there was no essential bond default incident.After China's rapid development of reform and opening up for 30 years,with the gradual disappearance of the demographic dividend,the weakening of the economic growth pivot,and the changes in the industrial structure,under the economic development tone of “de-capacity,destocking,and leverage reduction” The potential credit risk of the bond market has gradually emerged,and the emergence of the “11 Super Day Debt” default event in 2014 marked the first time that the domestic rigid redemption was broken.As of December 2018,a total of 257 bonds in the bond market were in default,involving an amount of 113.307 billion yuan.This indicates that the risk of securities default is gradually spreading and the market credit risk is increasing.On May 21,2018,Shanghai Huaxin International Group Co.,Ltd.announced that due to the adverse factors,the company's normal operations were seriously affected and failed to raise funds for repayment.“17 Huhuaxin SCP002” failed to pay the principal and interest.The first AAA rating issuer bond on the market experienced a substantial default.However,from the issuer Shanghai Huaxin to obtain the highest AAA rating to the very low CCC rating after the default,only a few months,this can not help but question the professionalism and authority of the rating company,which indicates that the rating mechanism is not Can play its early warning and revealing of potential credit risks.Therefore,it is very important to study the relevant factors affecting bond defaults and the rating agencies' relevant rating mechanism for bonds.Based on this,the article uses the method of comparative analysis and case analysis,based on the existing theoretical research at home and abroad.First,itanalyzes the current status of default in the domestic bond market,and grasps the current situation of default in the bond market and the future.Trends,and further analyze the defaulting enterprises and non-defaulting enterprises as the control group,and generalize the general elements of default in three aspects: macro,enterprise and finance;then,from general to special,deductive to selected time Sexual and representative "Huhuaxin SCP002" default cases,to deeply analyze the reasons for the occurrence of default events;in addition,based on the AAA rating of the first default event representative,from the "Huhuaxin letter SCP002" default case rating results and Start with the rating method,analyze and summarize the shortcomings of the rating mechanism.Finally,give relevant suggestions or inspirations at the enterprise level and rating level.The main conclusions of the article are as follows: First,based on the factor perspective,the analysis of the reasons for the company's default is available.In terms of non-financial factors,the global economy's downside expectations,the industry's unsatisfactory industry,the output prices fluctuate violently,and the company The over-expansion strategy and the weakening of the operation management are the key factors for bond defaults in the issuer;in terms of financial factors,the deterioration of profitability,operational capability,etc.,the asset-liability ratio is too high,and the indicators are not healthy.It shows the potential debt default risk of the issuer.Second,China's current rating mechanism has the following shortcomings: the rating company's position is relatively passive,the objective independence is absent,the rating results are not reliable enough;the financial elements are ignored,the non-financial driving factors are ignored,the rating method is not effective enough;The legal measures that the company restricts,the rating company is not authoritative.Third,the company's operation management has the following enlightenment: maintaining the stability of the management mode,strengthening the construction of the financial warning mechanism,and strengthening the construction of the company's distress response measures;Fourth,the domestic credit rating mechanism has the following enlightenment: Emphasis on finance The combination of sexual elements and non-financial driving factors promotes the improvement of the rating system and related legal systems.