Economic Effect Analysis Of Property Tax Pilot In Chongqing

This paper conducts a theoretical study on the economic effects of real estate tax.Starting from the general mechanism of economic effects of taxation,it expounds the price effect of real estate tax,the effect of local fiscal revenue and the mechanism of income redistribution effect.Based on the theoretical research,this paper conducts an empirical analysis of the economic effects of the real estate tax pilot in Chongqing.In terms of price effect,firstly,this paper makes a descriptive statistical analysis of the price and supply and demand of the Chongqing real estate market.We believe that the pilot scheme makes both the supply and demand sides of the Chongqing real estate market prefer small-sized ordinary commercial housing,resulting in a sharp rise in the price of small-sized housing.There has been a structural distortion in the residential market.Secondly,by constructing a difference-in-differences model for residential and high-end residential buildings,we find that the introduction of the pilot policy has not formed a policy effect in Chongqing,nor can it significantly regulate housing prices.We also found that people's expectations of rising house prices have a significant impact on house prices relative to the property tax pilot policy.In terms of local fiscal revenue effect,this paper firstly descriptively analyzes the contribution of Chongqing real estate tax to local fiscal revenue,and then uses the trend extrapolation method to analyze the income potential of Chongqing personal housing property tax in the next decade.We believe that the Chongqing property tax pilot can indeed increase local fiscal revenue,but the actual income increase effect is not obvious.In the short term,the pilot program is difficult to replace the land transfer fee,and it is difficult to become the main tax of the local government.However,in the long run,the income potential of the personal housing property tax is huge,which can bring considerable fiscal revenue to the local government.In terms of income redistribution effect,this paper uses the MT index proposed by Musgrave & Thin(1948)to calculate the Gini coefficient before and after tax to judge the tax progressiveness of the property tax pilot.This paper believes that the Chongqing pilot has adjusted the income distribution of residents to a certain extent,but due to the limitations of the program itself,the effect is limited.In the long run,with the continuous advancement of tax reform and the improvement of related supporting measures,the government's tax revenue from high-income groups will continue to increase,and its role in regulating distribution will become more and more obvious.In view of the above research results,this paper summarizes the experience and lessons of the Chongqing real estate tax pilot,and explores the path of China's real estate tax reform in the future.First of all,the function of the property tax should be properly positioned.The first goal should be to adjust income distribution.The second goal should be to meet the local government's fiscal revenue.The third goal is to regulate the real estate market.On this basis,we put forward suggestions on accelerating the legislative process,rationally designing the tax system elements,and improving the supporting measures for real estate tax reform.