Research On The Asymmetric Effects Of Asset Price Bubbles On Household Consumption In My Country

Throughout the history of the world economy in the past 100 years,asset price bubbles have frequently appeared,which has intensified the financial risks of a country,but also triggered the world financial crisis and even the global economic recession.The subprime mortgage crisis that began in the United States in 2007 triggered a global financial crisis and caused the world economy to fall into recession.In this context,it is of great practical significance to test China’s asset price bubble and study its asymmetric effect on consumption.In this paper,the GSADF test method is used to test the stock price and the price of each level,and the degree of foam is measured according to the test results.Then the MS-VAR model is used to divide the consumption growth rate of the “interpreted variable” into a regional system,and the study of asset prices under different district systems is studied the impact of bubbles on consumption.The study found that China’s stock market bubble is mainly in November 2006-October 2007 and December 2014-June 2015.The first bubble was born in China’s good macroeconomic environment;the second time was caused by factors such as excess social mobility and leveraged funds entering the market,which was shattered by stricter regulation.The real estate market has experienced four serious bubbles since 2010-2018.Through the driving factors,China’s real estate bubble is mainly divided into two types: policy-driven and investment-driven.The housing bubble that occurred after the subprime mortgage crisis was policy-driven,and the rest was investment-driven.The housing price bubble appeared to be contagious from first-tier cities to second-and third-tier cities.Using the MSMH(2)-VAR(1)model to divide the “consumption growth rate” into districts,the study found that the price bubbles have an asymmetric effect on consumption in the two regional systems,and the national housing price bubble has significant impact on consumption.To promote the effect,the stock price bubble mainly shows the suppression effect,but it also shows a certain promotion effect in the district system 2 state.