Efficiency Analysis And Trend Prediction Of Comprehensive Transportation System In Western China Considering The Energy Factor

The development of China's comprehensive transportation system is extremely unbalanced.The transportation network in the eastern region is dense and interconnected,while the western region is developing slowly and the traffic network is of low density.Transportation,as a high energy consumption industry,the efficiency of which needs to be evaluated urgently.The transportation network cannot be blindly expanded,in order to avoid the excessive energy consumption which does not meet the expected output.The government should uphold the concept of ecological civilization,make rational use of transportation resources,improve the utilization rate of resources,and achieve the healthy and effective development pattern of the transportation industry.The comprehensive transportation system is affected by many factors.Energy,as an indispensable element of economic development,the input of which should be limited in terms of its utilization efficiency,so as to avoid the phenomenon of high energy consumption with low growth.In view of the current situation of the development of transportation in western region,this paper collects the operation scale of highway,railway,aviation,water transportation and the energy consumption of transportation in each province as input indicators,GDP of transportation as output indicator,constructs an efficiency evaluation model by using the mathematical theory of data envelopment analysis(DEA),and quantitatively analyzes the efficiency of the comprehensive transportation system in 12 provinces in western region,reveals the redundancy of the input scale of various modes of transportation and the energy consumption of the transportation in each province.Furthermore,through the horizontal comparison of the redundant values of the provinces in the western region,the input indicators with greater redundancy are classified into the main and the secondary influencing factors,and the relevant suggestions for optimizing the allocation of resources are put forward accordingly.On the basis of the above research,this paper puts forward a prediction method which considers the transportation scale and energy consumption to be relatively effective and meet the future transportation demand.Taking Yunnan Province in western region as an example,the GM(1,1)and BP neural network theory are used to build a model for future effective transportation scale and energy input prediction,and MATLAB is used to carry out relevant modeling and calculation.The results can provide a reference direction for the future development scale and energy input value of Yunnan comprehensive transportation system.In addition,combined with the forecast of the revenue passenger kilometers,rotation volume of freight transport and energy consumption of various transport modes based on ARIMA model,the possible development trend of comprehensive transport structure and energy consumption in Yunnan Province is further analyzed.Finally,based on the data analysis above,suggestions for development planning of the comprehensive transportation system in Yunnan Province are proposed.