| As a kind of forward-looking information disclosure,earnings forecasts attract many investors? attention.However,due to the lack of self-protection consciousness of small investors and the undeveloped regulation system,there are still frequent irregularities in earnings forecasts.On December 5,2016,Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connection Program started and introduced a large number of professional Hong Kong investors,which helped regulating the earnings forecasts disclosure of listed companies.Firstly domestic and foreign literature about earnings forecasts is reviewed.According to Signaling Theory,Information Asymmetry Theory,Agency Theory and Efficient Market Theory,this paper compares the differences between earnings forecasts of companies included and not included in the stock connection list,before and after the implementation of the policy.Then,hypothesis concerning the effect of Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connection Program on the precision,accuracy,timeliness and optimism of earnings forecasts is put forward.Based on the hypothesis,a difference-in-difference model is established to analyze 11822 samples from the fourth quarter of 2015 to the third quarter of 2017.This research offers suggestions for mainland regulators and could be reference for standardizing information disclosure and improving the efficiency of mainland capital market.The research indicates that Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connection Program reduces the precision of earnings forecasts,improves the accuracy of earnings forecasts,reduces the timeliness of earnings forecasts and reduces the optimism of earnings forecasts.Among all the samples,companies with high litigation risk,high institutional shareholding ratio and high institutional shareholding ratio growth are more affected by the policy.As a result,mainland regulators should strengthen the education and management of mainland investors and optimize the supervision system while continuing introducing Hong Kong investors. |
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