A-share Price Bubble Measurement And Analysis Of Its Economic Effects

Throughout the history of the world economy,the speculative bubble burst occurred frequently.In the past 100 years,there have been many time events in the international community where the speculative bubble burst,which has had a huge impact on the economy.In recent years,China has experienced many stock market crashes.The stock price bubble has had a considerable impact on the development of China's real economy and the stability of the financial system.Therefore,research on the prevention of systemic financial risks around stock price bubbles has become a hot topic of current theory,studying stock prices.The causes,measures and economic effects of bubbles have important practical significance.First,it defines the connotation of the stock price bubble,analyzes the characteristics of the bubble and the reasons for the formation of the bubble,and then identifies and measures the bubble.On the basis of defining the bubble as the asset price deviates from its intrinsic value,it uses the speculative indicators such as stock price index,trading volume and turnover,turnover rate and price-earnings ratio to analyze the characteristics of stock price fluctuation and reveal the irrational speculation behavior of investors.Determine whether the stock price movement is separated from the listed company's asset status and the real economic growth,and thus determine whether the bubble exists.In measuring the bubble,the F-O model is used to estimate the intrinsic value of the stock to derive the deviation between the actual market price and the intrinsic value,that is,the stock price bubble component.The results showed that the two largest periods of the stock price bubble were from the second quarter of 2007 to the third quarter of 2008 and the second quarter to the third quarter of 2015.Secondly,based of measuring the stock market bubble degree,the GDP growth rate,tax revenue and money supply are selected as indicators to measure economic effects.The TVP-VAR model is used to analyze the impact of stock price bubbles on economic growth.The results are very good.The uncertainty of the impact of the bubble on economic growth was verified.The practical significance of the research on the stock market bubble is not only to measure the bubble size of China's A-share market,but also to study the formation mechanism of the stock market bubble from the root cause,to learn from the generation and bursting of the stock market bubble,and to remind investors in the stock market.Be wary of market risks,provide policy recommendations for the improvement of China's capital market system,and promote the stable and healthy development of the financial system.