Research On The Financial Risk Of High Leverage Of Non-financial Enterprises In Guangdong

In recent years,the rapid rise of China’s debt leverage ratio has caused widespread concern and hot debate,especially the high leverage ratio of non-financial enterprises and rapid growth.As a window of reform and opening up,Guangdong has long been in the vanguard of China’s economic development.Therefore,the study on the high leverage financial risks of non-financial enterprises in Guangdong is helpful to prevent and defuse systemic financial risks.Paper first analyze the present situation of the Guangdong non-financial companies leverage and then based on the theory of unstable cummings funds raised from the theoretical analysis of Guangdong non-financial companies under the high leverage of the financial risk,and through the KMV model,the random effects model,the fixed effects model empirical analysis Guangdong non-financial enterprises under the highly leveraged financial risk,finally puts forward countermeasures and Suggestions.The research results show that:1.The high leverage ratio of non-financial enterprises in Guangdong is actually a structural high level,with a large amount of liabilities concentrated in the real estate industry and manufacturing industry.2,real estate companies leverage effect on the risk of default,presents the positive correlation relationship between both,rising house prices have made real estate formed up instability,once down trigger instability will induce the outbreak of the financial crisis,but the government restrict or inhibit sexual institutional arrangement such as delayed to stabilization of the process.3.The leverage ratio of manufacturing enterprises has no significant impact on default risk,mainly because manufacturing products do not have the conditions for continuous rise,and the growth of corporate profits does not depend on the rise of a single asset,so there is no upward instability in the manufacturing industry.4.The probability of industrial default has a significant impact on the non-performing loan ratio of industrial Banks,and the two show a positive correlation,indicating that the rise of corporate default risk usually leads to the rise of financial risk.Therefore,it is necessary to focus on preventing the financial risk of high leverage of real estate enterprises.