| Since the housing commercialization reform,China’s real estate industry has maintained a high growth rate,and the real estate industry has become an industry that has an important impact on the national economy.At the same time,the persistence of speculation and the prominent issue of the real estate price bubble,poses a great threat to the stable development of the economy and society.The real estate market is closely linked to many industries,and its stable operation is related to the stability of the entire economic system.The volatility of the real estate market will increase the likelihood of economic systemic risks.In recent years,in order to stabilize housing prices and maintain the smooth operation of the national economy,the government has continuously introduced various policies to curb housing prices.These policies have caused real estate prices to decline to some extent,but due to the influence of many external factors and the complexity within the real estate industry,Unreasonable growth in real estate prices still exists.Therefore,it is necessary to explore the issue of monetary policy affecting real estate prices furtherly.The purpose of this paper is to analyze the actual data of China’s monetary policy and real estate market on the basis of combing monetary policy and real estate price theory,select the targeted variables to further conduct quantitative analysis,and propose targeted policy recommendations accordingly.I hope these can promote the smooth operation of the real estate market,maintain the security of the financial system,and provide a strong guarantee for the further development of the national economy.Based on the real estate price decision theory,this paper analyzes the mechanism of the impact of monetary policy on real estate prices from the three aspects of deposit reserve ratio,interest rate and credit.Specifically,the deposit reserve ratio is analyzed through the currency multiplier channel and the expectation and declaration channels;the Keynesian classic model and the IS-LM model are used to analyze the interest rate transmission;the credit transmission is analyzed through the bank loan channel and the balance sheet approach.Then it analyzes the status quo and existing problems of China’s real estate market,and uses historical data to analyze the relationship between real estate prices and monetary policy.Based on theoretical analysis and realistic analysis,the latest data of nearly ten years were selected,and the method of establishing vector autoregressive model was used to empirically test the influence of monetary policy on housing prices.In the model,the loan interest rate of three to five years,the statutory deposit reserve ratio,the balance of various loans of financial institutions and the average price of commercial housing in the country are selected as proxy variables for monetary policy and house prices.Through the establishment of VAR model,the impulse response function curve is used to analyze the impact of monetary policy on house prices.The empirical results show that interest rates have a weak positive impact on real estate prices in the short term and a negative impact on long-term performance.The impact of the deposit reserve ratio on real estate prices is lagging,but the long-term performance is negative.The impact of bank credit on real estate prices is most pronounced,with a positive positive impact.In the impact of the three on housing prices,the interest rate and deposit reserve ratio have little impact on housing prices.Bank credit has the strongest impact on real estate prices and has the longest duration.Based on the results of empirical analysis and the content of the previous analysis,this paper proposes five policy recommendations to promote the stable operation of the real estate market. |
