A Study On Sudden Changes Of International Capital Flows In China

At present,China is facing a new situation of world economic development with the continuous advancement of global economic integration and the increasing volatility of intermational capital flow.How to effectively identify and prevent the sudden stop of intermational capital inrflow or the sudden flight of domestic capital and other crises has important practical significance.This paper selects data through the balance of payments of China from 1998ql to 2018q2 to analyze the occurrence tendency and probability of intermational capital flows sudden surge,sudden stop,sudden flight and sudden retrenchment for nearly 20 years,using the moving average method of standard deviation classification method and the latest capital flows sudderrly changes.Then using Probit model empirical analysis of the factors may affect the four sudden changes of global motivated,drawing domestic and regional infectious factors,the results found that economic growth at home and abroad,the global risk,level of intermational reserves,financial openness and neighboring crisis conditions and other factors can significantly affect the probability of sudden changes occur.In the further robustness test,it can be found that the driving factors of sudden changes of different types of capital are different,foreign direct investment is more influenced by the level of economic growth at home and abroad,while the sudden changes of portfolio investment are driven by the difiference of interest rates at home and abroad to a greater extent.Finally,according to the findings and conclusions of this paper,this paper puts forward relevant countermeasures and Suggestions,such as closely monitoring the inflow and outflow of international capital in China,keeping adequate international reserve level at all times,coordinating the relationship between the opening of domestic financial system and economic development,and firmly opening up gradually.