Real Option Analysis Of Agricultural Industry Sequence Investment Under The Government Subsidy Mechanism

The agricultural industry development investment decision can be used to understand the effective development and utilization of regional resources by cooperatives in poverty-stricken areas,thus leading the region to remove the hat of poverty.Based on the problems of agro-industry development,such as many uncertain factors,long term,and high cost,there are thresholds and intertemporal effects.How to make scientific and reasonable investment decisions is a crucial issue for cooperative managers.Therefore,combined with the current government subsidy policy for industrial poverty alleviation,building a scientific agricultural industry development project value system to help cooperative managers make the best investment decisions,this is the problem to be solved in this paper.This paper first introduces the origin and classification of real option theory,real option pricing method under discrete time and continuous time,dynamic programming method,and expounds the advantages of real option method over traditional investment method.Therefore,it lays a theoretical foundation for the accurate assessment of industrial value in the investment process of cooperatives in poverty-stricken areas and the scientific formulation of flexible decision-making.The agricultural industry investment process in poverty-stricken areas can be divided into three stages that are independent and mutually influential,namely the start-up stage,the development stage and the industrialization stage.The cooperative conducts industrial investment decisions in three stages based on the agricultural industry in poverty-stricken areas.When formulating the optimal investment decision,the cooperative needs to consider the impact of uncertainties such as fluctuations in agricultural product prices and market trends at various stages,and add more realistic government subsidy factors.Finally,using the L cooperatives in a poverty-stricken area of Hunan Province to test the flexible decision-making model of agricultural industry sequence investment,it shows that the decision of the model is in line with the actual investment decision-making of the cooperative industry,and the scientific decision-making is guaranteed.