Research On The Correlation Among RMB Exchange Rate,Real Estate Price And Household Consumption

After the exchange rate reform in 2005,China began to implement a managed floating exchange rate system,and the RMB exchange rate was no longer pegged to the US dollar.Since then,the yuan has appreciated.The significance of China's exchange rate reform since 2005 is to promote the marketization of RMB exchange rate,ease the downward pressure of economy and promote macroeconomic stability,but there are also risks of RMB devaluation and capital outflow.At present,China is faced with two hot issues,the appreciation of RMB and the heating up of domestic real estate.At the same time,the indirect impact on the real estate market increases the uncertainty of the future trend of housing price,while the housing price is related to people's livelihood and will affect people's quality of life.This article combed and summarized the domestic and foreign scholars about the exchange rate and real estate prices,exchange rates and household consumption and the influence of the interaction between real estate prices and consumer research,considering the real economic situation is very complicated and nonlinear trend of present three swings,think that the RMB exchange rate,real estate prices,is likely to be the existence of nonlinear dynamic relationship between household consumption,the yuan against the dollar,commodity house average sales price,the total retail sales of social consumer goods as the research variables,selected in July 2005-October 2018 monthly data,first through the DCC-GARCH model to confirm the dynamic relationship between the three.Then,by building MS-VAR model,empirical analysis is conducted on the correlation between RMB exchange rate,real estate price and real household consumption after the reform.The research concludes that:(1)the correlation between RMB exchange rate,real estate price and real household consumption will change with the economic state,not only in the size but also in the direction.(2)According to the different fluctuation characteristics of the time series of the research variables in the sample period,the sample period can be divided into the economic state with greater fluctuation and the economic state with less fluctuation.According to the estimation results of MS-VAR model,the correlation among the three is different in different economic states.On this basis,this paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions,in order to promote the healthy and stable development of the foreign exchange market and the housing market,stimulate domestic demand to increase the overall consumption of residents,promote the steady growth of the economy,and constantly improve people's living standards,to make contributions to the overall realization of a well-off society.