The Effect Of The Match Of Macro-prudential Policy And Monetary Policy In House Price

The real estate market is the important part of financial market which has attracted more and more attention from national governments.Excessive fluctuations in housing prices not only break the balance of financial system but also make serious influence in people life.National governments have paid much attention on the topic of control housing prices.In the past,as a traditional policy,monetary policies are widely used in real estate market.National governments control the cost of house purchase,the supply and demand of house and the price of house by adjusting interest rate.However,while financial system has become more and more complex and the monetary policies have some defects,monetary policy can't control real estate market effectively.National governments have started to search new policy means.After 2008 financial crisis,macro-prudential policies as a new policy have received favor of national governments.Macro-prudential policies pay more attention to the whole financial system and take actions from the view of macroscopic and countercyclical to prevent financial system's pro-cyclical fluctuation and systemic risk caused by cross department.The aim is to protect the stabilization of financial system.The text pays emphasis on the discussion of the match of monetary policy and macro-prudential policy and starts from the view of policy orientation.First,the text builds the theory by using the Tinbergen's Rule to account for the reason to collaborate macro-prudential policy and monetary policy.There is expectation channel and credit channel to explain that macro-prudential policy and monetary policy have an effect on house price.The asset prices will be influenced by participant's expectation.People's expectation of house price will affect the real house price.When the orientation of macro-prudential policy and monetary policy is same,the signal given by government is clear.The market will enhance the expectation of real estate price,the demand for house will be affected and the house price will be eventually influenced.In the meantime,the credit channel will also affect the house price.Monetary policy controls the scale of credit by adjusting interest rate.Credit macro-prudential policy tools can direct control the scale of credit and liquid assets policy tools can indirect control the scale of credit by controlling capital requirement.Then the scale of credit can control the demand for house and influence the house price.Combing the theory,a model is built.The change of house price is explained variable.Macro-prudential policy and monetary policy are the most important explaining variables.In the meantime,dummy variables are used to measure the match of macro-prudential policy and monetary policy.The text classifies the different situations of the orientation of macro-prudential policy and monetary policy and uses dummy variables to express.The text uses 41 countries' unbalanced panel data,conducts system GMM empirical test and analyze the situation of different macro-prudential policy tools under different states.Combined the result of empirical test,there are the main conclusions.Firstly,macro-prudential policies can restrain the rise of house price effectively and do better than monetary policies.LTV,DTI and Loan Loss Provisioning are the most effective tools among macro-prudential policies.Secondly,the effect of the collocation of macro-prudential policy and monetary policy do exist.When the orientation of macro-prudential policy and monetary policy is same,the effect will be strengthened.Thirdly,different macro-prudential policy tools have different effects.When the orientation of macro-prudential policy and monetary policy is same,the effect on LTV and DTI tools will be strengthened and the effect on other tools,countercyclical capital requirements and loan loss provisioning will nearly be zero.As a whole,the text makes a conclusion and puts forward some advices.Firstly,implement the match of macro-prudential policy and monetary policy correctly.The government can implement the match of macro-prudential policy and monetary policy positively to strengthen the influence of house price.When the house price fluctuates strongly,the government can implement macro-prudential policy and monetary policy in the same time.Secondly,match different macro-prudential policy tools with monetary because they have different effects.Try more macro-prudential policy tools like LTV and DTI to match up monetary policy because they have better effects.Thirdly,in the time of property-value bubble,try more tight macro-prudential policy and monetary policy.When the orientation of macro-prudential policy and monetary policy is same,the match has the best effect.