Measurement And Early Warning Of Financial Fragility In Emerging Economies

After entering the 21 st century,the development of emerging economies is obvious to all.The economic growth rate of emerging economies is accelerating.And the share of the overall economy is also expanding,which has become the main driving force for world economic growth.However,compared with developed countries,the financial base of emerging economies is weak,the laws and regulations of financial supervision are relatively lacking.The rapid economic growth and the advancement of globalization have gradually exposed their hidden problems.The financial fragility has accumulated and expanded,and it has gradually evolved into a financial crisis.In recent years,the financial fragility of emerging economies has gradually attracted the attention and research of scholars.It is increasingly important to measure and warn the financial fragility of emerging economies and then carry out targeted governance.Firstly,the thesis sorts out the theories related to the causes of financial fragility,summarizes the research on financial fragility measurement and early warning,and analyzes the causes of the financial fragility in emerging economies from the micro,macro and open international perspectives.Secondly,using the GPCA method,taking "E11" as the research sample,and selecting 17 indicators to construct the financial fragility index system to measure the level of financial fragility.Then compare and analyze the classification results according to the clustering analysis.Thirdly,forecasting the financial fragility index of ―E11‖ from 2018 to 2022 through ARIMA Model and analysing the financial situation of various countries.The main conclusions:Firstly,financial fragility is an inherent problem in the development of the financial system.The financial fragility of emerging economies is more serious than that of the country.Secondly,the financial fragility development pattern of emerging economies generally shows a ―U‖ shaped volatility trend,and countries have different sensitivities to external shock responses.During the global financial crisis in 2008,the financial fragility of countries was highly volatile and the duration of action was short.In the European debt crisis,financial fragility showed a moderate increase and lasted for a long time.Thirdly,there is a difference between the regulation of financial fragility and the degree of resistance of financial crises in emerging economies.The financial regulation cycle of high and moderate financial fragility countries is longer than that of low financial fragile countries.Fourthly,it is expected that the financial fragility level of emerging economies will show an overall upward trend in the next five years.Therefore,it is suggested that emerging economies should improve the stability of financial systems in various countries,and at the same time strengthen international regulatory cooperation on financial fragility and establish a rational financial fragility coordination governance mechanism.