Analysis On Bond Default And Research On Risk Early Warning

In recent years,under the background of a series of financial regulatory policies such as reducing leverage and removing channels,corporate financing channels have been tightened,defaults in the bond market have erupted frequently,and the defaulted issuers have gradually spread from private enterprises to Sino-foreign joint ventures,local state-owned enterprises and central state-owned enterprises.How to identify and guard against credit risk and realize the good competition of "survival of the fittest" in bond market plays an irreplaceable role for bond issuers,investors,bond underwriters and other intermediaries,financial regulators,etc.The analysis based on the common financial characteristics of historical defaulters is an important quantitative way to directly judge the risk.At the same time,China’s credit rating started relatively late,so it is of theoretical and practical significance to study and explore the credit rating operation system that is in line with China’s national conditions and to enhance the ability of early warning of corporate bonds’ credit risk.This paper takes the public default events in the bond market from 2015 to 2018 as a sample,and summarizes the characteristics of default bonds from the number of defaults,the industries of the default subjects,the nature of enterprises,the types of default bonds and the credit rating agencies’ rating levels at the time of issuance.At the same time,based on the characteristics of defaulted bonds,the causes of bond default are analyzed from the perspective of external factors and internal factors.The case of "17 Yongtai Energy CP004" default of short-term financing bills issued by Yongtai Energy Co.,Ltd.is analyzed concretely.The factors that constitute bond default are analyzed and verified by nested data in Z-score model.At the same time,it explores how the issuer,investors,credit rating agencies and regulatory authorities can improve the early warning ability of corporate bond default risk,providing some reference value and significance.