Analysis Of The Price Fluctuations And Trends Of Palm Oil

Since the 1950 s,with the specialization and variety of global agricultural production,agricultural production efficiency has been continuously improved,agriculture has achieved substantial increase in production,and the proportion of malnourished people in the world has also been greatly improved.This also makes the international agricultural product market trend toward demand,and the price of bulk agricultural products shows a long-term downward trend.If the external role such as the "black swan" event is not considered,the corresponding price fluctuations tend to converge.China's palm oil is totally dependent on imports.Its total import volume is second only to soybean oil.It is an important vegetable oil resource and plays an important role in the global palm oil trade.Studying the price trends and fluctuations of bulk agricultural products,looking for relevant clues from the palm oil market,and exploring the root causes of the decline in the prices of bulk agricultural products,it has certain practical significance to help foreign trade enterprises avoid the risks brought by fluctuations in palm oil prices.From the research context,in order to examine whether the changes in output will affect market trends and patterns over a period of time,this paper firstly sorts out the supply and demand of palm oil from 1980 to 2014 from an intercontinental perspective,and examines the palm oil market from the perspectives of production,consumption and trade.Changes that occurred during this time.This is followed by a comparison of palm oil and bulk agricultural products,on the basis of which the palm oil prices and bulk agricultural product prices trends and fluctuations are summarized and discussed.Secondly,the oil and fat oil varieties have strong substitution,and the price fluctuation of different varieties of vegetable oil will significantly affect the short-term price fluctuation of palm oil.From the perspective of market integration,using VAR model to explore whether the price fluctuation of other varieties of vegetable oil significantly affects the fluctuation of palm oil price,further use of variance decomposition and impulse response function results show that the price fluctuation of other oil and fat oil varieties will significantly affect the price fluctuation of palm oil..In the long run,palm oil prices tend to decline due to oversupply in the palm oil market.From different time periods,palm oil price fluctuations also tend to converge.Finally,according to the research,the following conclusions are drawn: the concentration of palm oil production is increasing,and the output is relatively surplus.In the long run,the price of palm oil is declining.The palm oil market has a highdegree of integration,and the price of palm oil at home and abroad shows obvious synchronicity and homogeneity,and the fluctuation tends to converge.