The Linkage Effects Of Deleveraging From The Perspective Of Macro Account

At present,China's macroeconomic leverage level is relatively high,especially in the non-financial enterprise sector.It has reached 163.4%,ranking first in the major economies,which greatly restricts the development of China's economy.Therefore,"deleveraging" is imperative.In addition,in recent years,China's economy has entered a new normal.The central government proposes structural reform on the supply side to solve the problems faced by economic development,and "deleveraging" is the key task of the supply side reform.How to measure the impact of policy measures on the leverage level of other departments,and how to dialysis the linkage effects of deleveraging and its specific process,have become a theoretical research issue to consider.Following a logical watertight accounting principle,this paper explores the linkage mechanism of deleveraging under the framework of a closed five-sector SFC(Stock-Flow Consistent)model,and puts forward some opinions and suggestions on the process of "deleveraging" in China.This article is divided into five parts.The first part is introduction.It mainly introduces some background of deleveraging in our country,analyses the current situation and problems of deleveraging in our country,summarizes the domestic and foreign literature related to deleveraging,and points out the value of this paper.The second part is a comprehensive introduction of the method of the account model of stock-flow consistent,the primary ideological source of the method and the current practical application in the world.In the third part,a SFC model,which includes five departments: family,enterprise,bank,government and central bank,is developed on the basis of explaining the principles followed by this model.It describes the behavior decision-making modes of each economic entity.The fourth part is simulation analysis: it's through changing some parameters of the model to investigate the influence of the change of leverage ratio in one sector on other sectors and even the whole economy and analyze the linkage effects of deleveraging.The last part draws some conclusions.Combining the existing problems of leverage in China and the simulation results,this paper puts forward some policy recommendations in the process of deleveraging in China,and points out the shortcomings of this paper and future research directions.Through the analysis of this paper,the conclusions are as follows.First,increasing the proportion of equity financing of enterprises can achieve the deleveraging of the enterprise sector,and the effect is remarkable,although this will have a negative impact on economic growth but relatively moderate.Secondly,although raising interest rates effectively reduces the leverage rate of the household sector,it makes the leverage level of the other three sectors rise instead of falling.Overall,leverage has not been "removed" but "shifted" and led to a slight decline in national income.From a policy point of view,adopting tightening monetary policy to reduce leverage is not a good policy measure.Thirdly,tax increases can not reduce the leverage rate of government departments,but have a greater negative effect.On the contrary,expanding government expenditure can not only sustain economic growth and avoid a downward trend,but also gradually improve the debt situation of enterprises and governments.Therefore,the expansionary fiscal policy has obvious effects and can achieve the dual goals of "deleveraging" and "stable growth".