The Impact Of Shadow Banking On The Effect Of Monetary Policy

After the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis,China began to pay attention to the emerging system of shadow banking.On the one hand,the development of China’s shadow banking is attached to commercial banks.Shadow banks and commercial banks cooperate to transfer high-risk loans and other on-balance-sheet services to the off-balance sheet to meet regulatory requirements and improve credit levels.On the other hand,shadow banks Competing with commercial banks,the characteristics of high-yield and lower transaction costs of shadow banking products also attract residents’deposits and corporate investment.The shadow bank’s indirect credit creation model will divert some commercial bank deposits.Since the reserve deduction rate set by the shadow bank is not controlled by the central bank,the reserve deduction rate and the statutory reserve rate set by the central bank will affect the currency multiplication.And the shadow banking products will reduce the excess reserves of commercial banks,thus more for credit and credit creation,both of which will affect the supply of money.Second,the shadow banking system will also affect the transmission of monetary policy in China.Channels,especially credit transmission channels;Finally,based on the IS-LM model,this paper analyzes that the credit creation ability of shadow banks will afifect the total output of the economy.In the empirical analysis,this paper uses the VADL model to analyze the impact of the growth rate of China’s shadow banking on the currency transmission mechanism,and concludes that the change in the growth rate of the shadow bank will change the efficiency and average lag period from the money supply to the real economy.This paper mainly includes five parts.The specific contents are as follows:The first part focuses on the research results of domestic and foreign scholars on the impact of shadow banking on monetary policy;the second part describes the development status of China’s shadow banking;the third part analyzes the shadow banking pair.The influence of factors such as money supply,monetary policy transmission channel and monetary policy ultimate goal;the fourth part analyzes the influence of shadow bank growth rate on monetary policy transmission mechanism through variable coefficient autoregressive distribution lag(VADL)model;According to the analysis of the previous chapters,the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward from the perspectives of supervision,risk control and improvement of monetary policy.In summary,the theoretical and empirical analysis shows that shadow banking affects the transmission mechanism of the entire monetary policy by affecting the currency volume of the money market,and the impact of shadow banking on the monetary policy transmission mechanism has an optimal growth rate.25%,which makes the monetary policy effect change.However,while expanding the liquidity of the market,the shadow bank will also increase the difficulty of statistics and measurement of the money supply,so that its role in controlling the overall liquidity has declined,and the shadow bank itself has insufficient information disclosure and hidden funds.The behavior of transportation,etc.,affects the controllability of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy and increases the difficulty of monetary policy supervision.Therefore,the supervisory authority should strengthen the supervision of the shadow banking system,prevent the shadow banking from triggering financial systemic risks,and promote the healthy development of the shadow banking system.