Cross-Border E-Commerce Enterprise Value Assessment Based On Real Option Method

With the rapid development of network information technology and the continuous diversification of trade modes,China's cross-border e-commerce industry has emerged as a new force,showing a strong momentum of development.The successful holding of the world Internet conference and the implementation of the major strategic measures of "One Belt And One Road" have provided a good environment for the development of cross-border e-commerce industry.Since 2013,the policy dividend of cross-border e-commerce has been gradually released to the whole country.A series of national policies,such as lowering the MFN tax rate of some daily consumer goods and setting up comprehensive test zones for cross-border e-commerce,show the importance and support for cross-border e-commerce.The development of cross-border e-commerce helps improve the competitiveness of China's smes,promote economic integration,and promote trade globalization.Data from the e-commerce research center shows that the volume of cross-border e-commerce transactions in China increased by 25 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2018.The increasing number of cross-border e-commerce enhances the competitiveness of cross-border e-commerce,so it is particularly important to understand the real value of cross-border e-commerce enterprises.Therefore,it is necessary to evaluate the value of cross-border e-commerce enterprises.Cross-border e-commerce is a new type of trade.Up to now,researches on cross-border e-commerce mainly focus on logistics mode,personnel training,policy support and regulatory countermeasures.There are few studies on the value assessment of cross-border e-commerce enterprises,and no unified valuation model has been formed.Cross-border e-commerce enterprises should not only understand the domestic market environment,but also have a full understanding of the international market.The larger market environment is bound to be more complex,which makes the financing,investment,operation and other activities of cross-border e-commerce enterprises more uncertain.Traditional evaluation methods believe that such uncertainty will increase the risk of the enterprise,so the results obtained cannot reflect the real value of the enterprise.And real options method in the assessment of enterprise value can take into consideration of the uncertainty for the future development of the enterprise,think of the enterprise management flexibility can bring potential value,so this paper tries to use real options method to assess the value of cross-border electricity business enterprise,and the particularity of the cross-border electricity industry to make appropriate adjustments to the model.By analyzing the characteristics of the value composition of cross-border e-commerce enterprises and the uncertainty of their future development,this paper believes that the value of cross-border e-commerce enterp rises should consist of two parts: the existing asset value of enterprises and the potential option value.The cost method,market method and income method do not consider the potential option value of the enterprise,so it has limitations.The real option method can fully reflect the real value of enterprises by taking into account the uncertainty of enterprise asset income and enterprise management flexibility in the evaluation of enterprise value.Therefore,this paper believes that the real option method is more suitable for the value evaluation of cross-border e-commerce enterprises.By analyzing the applicability of the real option method to cross-border e-commerce enterprises,Black-Scholes option pricing model is finally selected to evaluate the value of cross-border e-commerce enterprises and applied to specific cases to prove the effectiveness of this method.