Research On The Time Lag Of China’s Monetary Policy Based On Credit Market Sentiment

Money is one of the core elements of finance.That the prevention of major financial risks and the realization of financial function of servicing the real economy both depend on the scientific implement of monetary police.Therefore,scholars have always attached great importance to the study of monetary of monetary policy.The study of monetary policy mainly focuses on whether monetary policy can have an impact,how the impact is and how it affects.That is to say,the effect of monetary policy and the transmission mechanism of monetary policy.The effects of monetary policy naturally include the effect size and the effects of time lag.On the other hand,the effect lag of monetary policy arises from the transmission process of monetary policy,that is to say,the problem of monetary policy lag is closely related to the transmission mechanism of monetary policy.Thus,the study of monetary policy time lag has important value in monetary policy theory,and it is also helpful for monetary authorities to implement monetary policy correctly and reasonably and achieve macroeconomic policy objectives in practice.In the study of monetary policy time lag,western scholars and Chinese scholars have not only studied the concept of time lag,the classification of time lag,the causes of time lag and the influencing factors of time lag,but also paid attention to the empirical analysis of monetary policy time lag by using real data and combining various statistical and measurement methods.Scholars’ empirical research types are also rich.Generally speaking,it can be divided into monetary channel and credit channel,or quantitative monetary policy tool and price monetary policy tool to calculate the average time lag of monetary policy from the two final macroeconomic variables of total output and general price level,and then put forward the corresponding policy recommendations of the application of monetary policy.In recent years,with the rise of behavioral finance,scholars have paid more and more attention to considering the impact of human psychological factors on various economic and financial problems.Among them,the research on investor sentiment in the capital market and consumer sentiment and producer sentiment in the product market is earlier and richer.Based on the existing research and the theory of monetary policy transmission path,this paper introduces the credit market emotional variables into the study of monetary policy time lag,and examines more specifically the differences between price and quantity monetary policy instruments and the process influencing factors of the differences,thus enriching the inherent research ideas of monetary policy time lag.Through empirical research,the following conclusions can be drawn:(1)At the output level,compared with quantitative monetary policy,price-based monetary policy has shorter time lag and greater intensity of output regulation;price-based policy should be the main form of regulation,supplemented by quantitative policy.(2)At the price level,compared with the price-based monetary policy,the quantitative monetary policy has a greater policy intensity and a longer policy time lag;the quantitative monetary policy is the main form of regulation and control,and the price-based monetary policy is less used.(3)At the balance of payments level,compared with price-based monetary policy,quantitative monetary policy has greater policy power and longer time lag on balance of payments,but the difference between the two types of monetary policy on the strength of international balance control is not as great as that of the other two macro levels;the form of regulation supports the practice of using both types of monetary policy at the same time.(4)The existence of credit market sentiment as an intermediary factor of monetary policy transmission affects the time lag and policy strength of monetary policy.Therefore,the credit market sentiment should be an important factor to be taken into account when monetary authorities formulate and implement monetary and financial policies.It is also suitable for the authorities to verify the effectiveness of monetary policy.(5)According to the conclusion of empirical analysis,the corresponding policy suggestions are given: monetary authorities should use monetary policy more targeted;monetary authorities should pay more attention to the influence of market emotional factors;monetary authorities should use monetary policy more forward-looking and time-sensitive;smooth monetary policy transmission mechanism and improve the financial market system.