Research On Infectious Mechanism Of Debt Default Risk In Enterprise Group

In the whole year of 2018,domestic enterprises and various regions frequently experienced corporate debt defaults,which seriously affected investors' confidence and investment expectations,and had a very negative impact on the Chinese economy entering the new normal,and prevented major risks from being resolved.Received the attention of the government.Debt default should also be the focus of risk.Debt default comes from a certain venture company,but in the event of a continuous debt default incident,it directly brings about regional and systemic major risks.Corporate groups are an important part of the systematic infection of debt defaults.The characteristics of enterprise groups affect the occurrence of debt defaults and the time,path and scale of infection.The enterprise group has many members and enterprises,and there are complex associations between the enterprises and the enterprises,which are mainly linked by equity,and frequent and hidden related transactions.On the one hand,this makes the information between creditors and enterprise groups more asymmetrical;on the other hand,the credit risk between member companies of enterprise groups often has a linkage and change relationship,which is highly contagious.Any default in any of the enterprise groups may result in other affiliates also defaulting,resulting in a huge debt accumulation risk.This paper adopts the case method,mainly based on the occurrence process of the debt default event of Shenwu Group,and takes the time-infected sequence of debt default as the research context to study the infection mechanism of debt default in enterprise groups.In the research of infection mechanism,it is identified that the debt default has passed through the three processes of “risk exposure enterprise ?group core company ?outer infected company”.The three processes are transmitted to different levels of enterprises with different characteristics.The financial status,the position in the guarantee chain,and the control power within the group are different.Therefore,the time of infection,the speed of infection,and the scale of default caused by the delivery process have different characteristics.In general,outer companies are highly contagious,but inward infections are slow;core companies are less susceptible to infection,and infections between core companies are slow,but their infections with outer companies are quite rapid.At the same time,there are important infectious nodes in this infection process,and the effects of each node in the infection process are also different.The key nodes mainly include the conditions of infection(risk factor stimulation,risk exposure enterprises),carriers of risk transmission(guarantee chain,equity relationship),and the factors affecting the escalation of debt default risk(bank competition,high leverage of central enterprises).Each node affects the infection path of debt defaults,which gives us an entry point to control and prevent debt defaults.Finally,after clarifying the infection process and the key nodes of infection,the analysis summarizes the time and scale characteristics of debt default infection.Targeted suggestions for the characteristics of different key nodes,time and scale of infection,in order to effectively prevent debt defaults within the group,and thus avoid further escalation of debt violations.