Research On The Impact Of Credit Supply On The Industrial Structure Upgrading In China

In the past 40 years,China's economy has maintained a high growth rate.However,in recent years,China's economic growth has shown signs of decline,especially in 2015 when the economic growth rate fell below 7%for the first time,and China's economy began to enter a new normal stage of slowing growth.The report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China pointed out that it is of great importance to support the optimization and upgrading of traditional industries,accelerate the development of modern service industries,and aim to raise the level of international standards.Therefore,in this important and critical period,maintaining the rapid growth of the economy and promoting the industry to the middle and high-end level is an urgent task facing China's current economy.As an important production factor,capital increase and its structural optimization will have a crucial impact on economic growth and industrial structure upgrading.Therefore,it is necessary to systematically sort out the relationship between credit supply and industrial structure upgrading from the theoretical and empirical aspects,and clarify the mechanism of credit supply affecting the upgrading of industrial structure in the current economic situation.This paper explores the impact of credit supply on the upgrading of industrial structure by establishing a provincial static panel data model,and at the same time verifies the possible impact mechanism and discusses the temporal and regional heterogeneity.Finally,this paper proposes policy recommendations and research perspectives based on the conclusions of the full text.Firstly,this paper combs the research results in related fields,clarifies the influencing factors of industrial structure upgrading,and provides enlightenment for the selection of empirical variables.Secondly,this paper defines the related concepts of credit and industrial structure,and summarizes relevant economics.And on this basis,the four possible impact mechanisms of credit supply on industrial structure upgrading are proposed:accelerating scientific and technological innovation,expanding foreign trade,stimulating economic growth,and improving human capital;Thirdly,this paper makes a descriptive analysis of China's credit supply and industrial structure upgrading,and compares the current situation of credit supply and industrial structure upgrading in North and South China.Then,this paper conducts model design to determine the final use of individual-time double fixed effect model,and from the two aspects of credit supply scale and credit supply term structure,the paper analyzes the impact of credit supply on the upgrading of industrial structure,and finds that both have a significant positive effect on the upgrading of industrial structure,and the role of credit supply scale is more prominent,and at the same time,the results of the lag term indicate that the impact of credit supply on the industrial structure upgrading has a long period of periodicity,lag and continuity;Further,the paper clarifies that credit supply can promote industrial structure upgrading by accelerating technological innovation,expanding foreign trade,stimulating economic growth and increasing human capital,and finds that credit supply will indeed have various impacts on industrial structure upgrading due to time and geographical differences,and the verification of the influence mechanism and the heterogeneity analysis in the North and the South are possible innovations in this paper.Finally,the paper summarizes and gives the following policy recommendations:(1)expand the scale of credit supply and adjust the direction of credit supply;(2)encourage credit to support high-tech industries to accelerate technological innovation;(3)improve the scale of credit financing for foreign trade enterprises to expand foreign trade;(4)adjust the term structure of credit supply to increase human capital.