| The egg is an indispensable agricultural product in the vegetable basket project of our country.China is the world’s largest egg producer and consumer;In 2018,China’s egg production was about 26.588 million tons,accounting for about 40 percent of the world’s total production.In addition,layer breeding industry is an important part of animal husbandry and belongs to the category of "agriculture,rural areas and farmers" supported by the state.At the beginning of 2014,the stock of laying hens in China was about 1.5 billion,the scale of farmers reached 300,000,and the number of workers reached more than 10 million.The annual output value of relevant industries exceeded 350 billion yuan,which had a great impact on the development of rural economy.However,there are some problems in China’s layer breeding industry,such as low concentration,decentralized market production and operation,and small enterprise scale.The industrial characteristics of "small scale,large group" are prominent.At the same time,the price of eggs is vulnerable to the impact of the outbreak,feed and other factors,the price changes greatly,egg breeding industry has a greater operational risk.Egg futures was launched in dalian Commodity Exchange on November 8,2013.It is the first livestock futures and fresh agricultural products in China.Its listing enriches the types of agricultural products futures,helps to form authoritative prices,provides risk-averse tools,serves farmers and enterprises’ production and operation,and broadens the scope of futures market to serve agriculture,rural areas and farmers.And promote the standardization and scale development of domestic egg industry.Therefore,discuss the development of egg futures market,and understand the function of egg futures price discovery;This will contribute to the orderly development of egg futures and the development of the egg industry and all poultry egg industries.The two basic functions of futures market are price discovery and hedging.Price discovery is the core function of futures market.Futures markets are volatile,with different research dates and data sources producing different results.Great changes have taken place in the domestic economic environment.In such a volatile environment,the analysis of the price discovery function of egg futures can enrich the research on the content of the egg futures market and provide the regulatory authorities,investors,farmers and related enterprises with the basis for decision-making.This paper analyzes the discovery function of egg futures price.First,the development of the egg spot market and futures market is introduced.The operation of the spot market is introduced from the production,export and consumption of eggs,and then the operation of the futures market is introduced from the trading volume,holding volume,turnover rate and delivery of egg futures contracts.Second,in the empirical analysis part,the data are collected by using the daily settlement price of egg futures and the average wholesale price of eggs in the farmers’ market released by the ministry of agriculture.The empirical analysis methods include correlation analysis,unit root test,co-integration test,VAR model,granger causality test,impulse response analysis and variance decomposition.The conclusions of the empirical analysis are :(1)the spot price of egg period has a high correlation,and the price fluctuation shows a consistent trend.(2)long-term equilibrium of egg futures and spot prices.(3)the spot price of egg period has a two-way granger causality and mutual guidance relationship.(4)VAR model and impulse response analysis show that egg futures and spot prices are sensitive and strong to information shock from themselves.The egg spot price has a relatively strong response to the standard deviation information shock from the futures market,which lasts for a long time,but the intensity is limited,indicating that the information transmission mechanism of the egg futures market needs to be strengthened.However,the futures market has a weak response to the information shock from the spot market,which reflects the existence of irrational and speculative behavior of investors in the egg futures market,while ignoring the effective demand for the information of the spot market.(5)the variance decomposition indicates that the information shock from the futures market is of great significance to both the futures price and the spot price.From the above,the price discovery function of egg futures market has been fulfilled,but it is not very significant.Finally,according to the empirical results,the following countermeasures are proposed to promote the development of the price discovery function of the egg futures market: improve the infrastructure construction of the egg spot market,and promote the development of the price discovery function of the futures market;Optimize the structure of participants in egg futures market and cultivate rational investors;Based on the current situation of the industry,perfect the standard design of egg futures contract;By using the model of "company + farmer",launching the model of "insurance + futures",and trying to develop the trading model of egg options,the efficiency of price discovery function of China’s egg futures market is improved. |
PDF Full Text Request