Study On The Financial Crisis Early Warning Model Of K Logistics Enterprise

China's market economic system reform is developing day by day,the capital market is continuously growing,international capital is gradually entering,more and more domestic enterprises' internal financial risks are surfacing,financial crises occur from time to time,and bankruptcy incidents are not rare.Under the background of fierce competition at home and abroad,logistics enterprises are faced with the challenge of investing capital in the early stage.Some logistics industries,such as the shipping industry where K company is located,are also faced with economic cyclical risks.However,K company does not pay much attention to the early warning of financial crisis,and the high fixed cost makes the enterprise face a high level of operational risk.Therefore,in order to achieve long-term development in the industry,it puts forward higher requirements for enterprise managers and other stakeholders to timely discover the crisis,improve the ability of financial crisis early warning,and actively improve the enterprise's controllable factors,so as to prevent financial crisis with increasingly high possibility.On the basis of summarizing and sorting out domestic and foreign financial crisis warning research,this paper selects the financial crisis and non-financial crisis enterprises of transportation industry,warehousing industry and postal service industry from 2001 to 2018,and divides them into estimated sample groups and test sample groups to carry out the research on the construction of financial crisis warning model of logistics companies.Firstly,the early warning index system of financial crisis is screened and constructed.Next,factor analysis and Logistic regression were used to build the financial crisis warning model of logistics companies.On the basis of combining the present situation of K company,industry environment and business characteristics,the backtracking test of the model is carried out.On the basis of successful backtracking test,the financial crisis situation of K company in the future was predicted.At last,the paper expounds the application significance of the financial crisis warning model,and puts forward some relevant Suggestions for financial crisis warning safeguard measures and financial risk prevention.The financial crisis warning model constructed in this paper is based on the sunrise industry of modern logistics.Therefore,in the theoretical sense,the research in this paper expands the scope of financial crisis warning research to a certain extent.In the practical sense,this paper studies to some extent can make logistics enterprises alert to their possible financial crisis,pay attention to financial risk prevention,do a good job in the financial crisis early warning system safeguard measures,for the ability to predict the financial crisis,the enterprise should develop risk crisis control work in advance.This is of great significance for enterprises to improve risk management and market competitiveness.