| In China’s economic transformation and growth of the new stage of development,with the constant improvement of the financial innovation and the degree of liberalization,between commercial Banks,commercial Banks and other financial institutions in the links between more closely than ever.However,close correlation also provides a natural channel for the spread of systemic risk,and the supervision and prevention of systemic risk in the banking industry are highly regarded.From the point of view of risk regulations for banking institutions of systemic risk and its overflow for precise measurement is an important premise of regulation,the influential factors of the bank systemic risk contribution to discover and evaluation is the key step in the risk prevention.Based on widely collected at home and abroad on the basis of relevant research literature and policy and regulations,and from the aspects of theory and practice in the new era of systemic risk in China’s banking industry and its influencing factors were studied.At the theoretical level,the formation and transmission mechanism of systemic risk in banking industry is analyzed in detail.It is believed that the formation of systemic risk is influenced by internal factors and external shocks.The negative externality of systemic risk promotes the spread and expansion of risk through both direct and indirect channels.In addition,the article explores the factors that may affect the systemic risk of the banking industry from the perspective of risk supervision and prevention.In the empirical analysis section,based on the relevant data of 14 listed commercial Banks between 2011 and 2015,the static and dynamic Co VaR method was used to measure the systematic risk contribution of each bank.Then,based on the above theoretical analysis and the perspective of risk supervision and prevention,the possible influencing factors of systemic risk are screened,and the bidirectional fixed effect model is used to verify it.The results show that the systemic risk spillover effect of state-owned commercial Banks,joint-stock commercial Banks and urban commercial Banks increases in the cross-sectional dimension.In time dimension,the different nature of the bank’s risk synchronization of periodic change appears overflow,until the end of 2016 commercial Banks for the contribution of systemic risk of decline,suggests that systemic risk is steadily falling.In the following related to systemic risk factors found in the empirical analysis,bank assets and liabilities correlation can significantly increase the risk degree of overflow,need to be alert to commercial Banks,especially large state-owned commercial Banks to the rapid expansion of assets;However,issuance of bonds and preferred stock capital supplement helps to reduce systemic risk spillover,thus encouraging its use a variety of capital supply way,be beneficial to the monitoring of systemic risk prevention.In addition,due to the real estate bubble and the frequent occurrence of the stock market,the price fluctuation from the external market cannot be ignored. |
