Research On The Relationship Between Industrial Structure Change And Efficiency-driven Growth

The relationship between the change of industrial structure and economic growth has long been the focus of development economics.Development economists such as Kuznets and Chenery studied the relationship between industrial structure change and economic growth in different stages of development by comparing and analyzing the evolution characteristics of industrial structure in different countries.Using data from 101 countries and regions from 1950 to 1970,Chenery established a multinational model,studied developed and developing countries,and proposed the standard pattern of industrial structure change,revealing the regularity of industrial structure evolution for different types of countries.The research of early development economists mainly focuses on the industrialization development before the mid-20th century.After the all-round development of the information technology revolution in the 1970s,great changes have taken place in the technological paradigm,industrial form and mode,the vigorous development of emerging industries has become an important driving factor for economic growth and industrial structure change.In particular,as the largest emerging country,China's rapid industrialization has created a miracle in the history of world industrialization and formed the characteristics of China's unique industrial structure change.Under the background of information technology revolution,the new industrialization practice makes the relationship between industrial structure change and economic growth take on new characteristics,especially in the process of changing from element-driven growth to efficiency-driven growth,which forms the change rule of industrial structure different from the development pattern of Chenery standard.This paper draws lessons from the research perspective of international comparison of development economists such as Chenery and the model thinking of industrial structure analysis,and studies the relationship between industrial structure change and economic growth under the background of information technology revolution.Especially in the process of changing from factor-driven growth to innovation-efficiency-driven growth,the characteristics of industrial structure change provide a new theoretical understanding and strategic policy basis for China to realize the dynamic transformation of growth and industrial structure optimization.Firstly,this paper selects three economies at different stages of innovation-driven growth,conducts statistical analysis on their economic growth and the development status of the three industrial structures,and compares the changes of the three industrial structures since 1970.Secondly,considering the improvement of labor productivity of China after the reform and opening up efficiency driven growth has a direct contribution.In this paper,using the method of converting share to labor productivity growth is decomposed into industry internal growth and industrial structure change,focus on analysis of the industrial structure change on the contribution of labor productivity,and the effect of industrial structure change by labor productivity,in turn,promote efficiency driven growth.Finally,this paper draws lessons from Chenery's analysis method and model,chooses the economic data of 15 sample countries in the mature period of innovation efficiency growth from 1970 to 2016,re-estimates the parameters of the Chenery model,compares the changes of industrial structure in the growth stage of China's efficiency-driven model with the estimated values of the model,and analyses the problems existing in the process of industrial structure change in China.Through the above research,the conclusions of this paper are as follows:Firstly,in the process of China's transformation from factor-driven growth to efficiency-driven growth,the improvement of labor productivity has a direct contribution to economic growth.Changes in industrial structure can promote efficiency-driven growth by affecting the improvement of labor productivity.In the effect of structural change,the tertiary industry drives the improvement of overall labor productivity the most.A large number of labor force flow from the primary industry with low labor productivity to the tertiary industry,and the allocation efficiency of resources is improved.However,with the passage of time,the contribution of technological progress is increasingly prominent,and the change of industrial structure is no longer the most important driving force for the growth of labor productivity.Secondly,the change trend of China's tertiary industry basically conforms to the general law.Since 1970,China's first industrial output value of a share of GDP is declining,Although the proportion of the secondary industry in the national economy is relatively high,it has begun to decline in recent years.The proportion of the tertiary industry in the GDP has been rising steadily,and its share in the national economy will be higher and higher in the future.However,the adjustment of China's industrial structure has a certain lag,and the adjustment speed of the three industries is slower than the theoretical expected value of the model.Finally,in the stage of efficiency-driven growth,China's primary industry lags behind,and its production mode and production efficiency are lower than those of other developed countries.The proportion of the secondary industry is too high,among which the high-end manufacturing industry with high added value and high technology content does not have strong independent innovation ability,the mode of economic growth is too extensive,and there are problems such as overcapacity and low production efficiency in the industry.Compared with developed countries,the proportion of the tertiary industry in GDP is still far behind,accounting for about 20%.In particular,the development of producer services in the tertiary industry is far behind that of developed countries.