Analysis Of China's Structural Inflation Based On Tradable And Non-tradable Model

China is in an important transition stage of economic development,with the Chinese economy entering the "new normal",the present China's economy is not only different from the planned economy era,which has the main characteristics of supply insufficiency and bottleneck,but also differs from the typical market economy which has the characteristic of the general demand is difficult to satisfy.Therefore,China's macroeconomic cycle has a distinctive imprint,only using the original macroeconomic theory,it is difficult to identify the current consumption demand structure changes,resource allocation mode conversion,economic growth dynamic change,industrial structure adjustment,income level is more unbalanced,economic growth rate transformation and other phenomena,More unable to find symptomatic policy prescriptions.Therefore,we should combine the characteristics of the new stage of China's economy,combine with the new characteristics of the relationship between inflation and employment,and reconsider the new characteristics of China's inflation.In the 5-year period of 1997-2002,China's economy has been in deflation,even if inflation began in 2003,it was only a slight inflation,until 2008,when prices rose to a new level,we began to feel inflationary pressure.As well as the large reduction of surplus rural labor force,the continued low rural labor productivity and the high demand for agricultural products,the price of the agricultural sector has been rising,and has become the main factor to pull the consumer price index.It can be seen that the structural characteristics of China's economy are more obvious,the structural difference of this characteristic causes the change of product price in our country,and has remarkable difference with the traditional economic structure characteristic.Whether or not the "structural price hike" is agreed,all the price rises so far have been attributed to rising food prices.In other words,the price of food contributed more than 90%per cent to the rise in the price index of the population,and the latter resulted in a correlation with new developments.At present,the research on the phenomenon of inflation(deflation)is mainly dominated by neo-classical economics or Keynes economics,and in the theoretical setting of this view,inflation(austerity)is studied as a macro-quantity problem.The theory of total inflation is quite different from the view that development economists believe that the problem of inflation(austerity)in developing countries is rooted in the structure of the economy.According to the current situation of China's macroeconomic operation,China's economic structure has been upgraded to a new position,in addition,based on the current international economic situation of the complex and changeable trend expectations,may make the economic structure towards more unbalanced state,and the previous global economic imbalance caused by the price change compared to It can be concluded that an imbalance in the economic structure will increase the economic risk of inflation or austerity.In order to comprehensively analyze and deal with the price fluctuation caused by the current economic structural imbalance,let us,from the structural point of view,on the basis of the mixed Phillips curve,examine the difference of the industrial structure,the change of the consumer demand structure and other characteristics of the economic structure,to the current China's structural inflation impact.In the theoretical and empirical studies,the following basic conclusions are drawn:the strength of rational expectation is greater than that of adaptability,and rational expectation dominates the effect of inflation expectation.After the unemployment rate is replaced by the output gap,the Phillips curve shows that the alternative relationship between unemployment and inflation exists in China's economy since reform and opening up.There is a stable long-term relationship between the actual output gap and the structural inflation rate,but the actual output gap is the cause of structural inflation fluctuations,so we believe that the government can control inflation and unemployment by adjusting the actual output gap.From the point of view of supply layer,the difference of labor productivity level in trade goods sector and non-tradable goods sector makes China's economic structural inflation serious,that is,the Balassa-Samuelson effect on China's economy is of great reference significance,which is consistent with the conclusion of research at home and abroad.From the point of view of demand,the structural change of consumption demand has positive effect compared with the price level of the two,and the price level of the non-tradable sector will be improved faster in the non-trade sector,the increase of labor productivity and the effect of wage catching mechanism.This paper puts forward the relevant policy suggestions on the regulation of structural inflation:(1)Increase the input of agricultural productive service.In order to offset the impact of income distribution,it is suggested to increase the policy support,mobilize the enthusiasm of farmers,realize the technology and modernization of agricultural production,so as to improve the output of agricultural products and improve the productivity of farmers.(2)Strengthen the adjustment of industrial structure.(3)Strengthening the synergy of structural policies.The Government should give full play to the adjustment of other structural policies,such as industrial structure optimization,supply-side reform,income distribution policy and other related policies,strengthen the coordination between the policies,so as to stabilize the price fluctuation effect.