| With the progress of society and the improvement of people’s living standards,China’s social security system is facing constant reform.The National Social Security Fund(NSSF),as an important component of the social security system,has become one of the important issues of the world.The NSSF is an important social security strategic reserve centrally managed by the central government.As for the national livelihood,the main role of the NSSF is to supply the social security and other social security needs when the population ages to the peak in the future.From the overall perspective of the state and society,the investment and operation of the social security fund plays a vital role in the steady development of the economy and the construction of the social security system.In China,the social security system has formed a certain foundation after years of constant development.As the way the NSSF is raised has moved from the pay-as-you-go system to the partial accumulation system,the fund scale is also expanding.From the point of China’s capital market,NSSF has become one of the most important institutional investors and attracts so much attention of all the investors in the capital market,because of its huge volume of capital amount and the nature of capital.However,with the increasingly severe population aging problem and the continued expansion of social insurance coverage,NSSF is also facing a high pressure.How to solve the gap in the social security fund and raise its value has become the core issue of the operation of NSSF investment management.In addition to this,"the Measures for the Administration of Investment in Basic Pension Insurance Funds" marked China’s regional basic pension insurance funds have officially entered the stage of large-scale investment and operation.Guo Shuqing,the former Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission,once said:"It is of great significance to administer pensions in a unified way and learn from NSSF to invest in the stock market to gain returns." Therefore,in order to play an important role in guiding the pension funds into the market,improving the scientific and effectiveness of the investment and operation system of the NSSF is a focus issue for the theoretical and practical sectors.This study mainly based on the NSSF’s investment ability,combines market timing theory with the characteristics of NSSF investment,starting from the subdivided aspect of stake-reducing investment and exploring the market timing ability of social security funds.This article takes the Chinese listed company held by the NSSF portfolio as the general research sample,and firstly proves the existence of the market timing behavior of NFFS’s stake-reducing investment by reducing the holding price and reducing the ratio.Next,research was conducted by using the Heckman two-stage analysis method to explore the factors that affect the market timing of the NFFS’s stake-reducing investment.Based on the result of empirical analysis,the NSSF’s investment reduction of market timing behavior is influenced by the nature and value of ownership of the company held by the holding company,in addition to its own investment characteristics.Finally,this study integrates the current institutional factors and investment environment,sums up the basic conclusions,and summarizes the policy recommendations that apply to China’s social security fund investment operations and pensions into the market.In order to enhance the investment ability of social security funds,the smooth and safe entry of pensions into the market and achieve the goal of final value preservation and increase and provide scientific theoretical support. |
