Economic Policy Uncertainty,Industry Characteristics And Financial Risk Contagion

In the process of rapid development of the industry,a large amount of financial support is needed.In most countries,the financial industry is the main source of funds for real economic companies such as industrial and service industries with limited internal funds.Due to the close investment and financing relationship between the two entities,the entity The risks and returns of economic companies are theoretically affected by the profitability and stability of the financial sector.If the real economy is impacted by risks,there will be a reverse risk shock to the financial sector through bond defaults.Therefore,studying the financial tail risk spillover effect between industries will help relevant departments to formulate industrial support policies efficiently and reasonably,promote industry development,and prevent financial risks.The so-called inter-industry financial tail risk spillover effect refers to the tail risk spillover between the financial industry and the real economic sector.The financial industry refers to the financial industry in the CSRC Industry Classification Standard(2012),and the real economic sector points out other than the financial industry.All industries.In this paper,the 2002-2017 SFC industry index and the listed company's quarterly data are taken as samples to construct CCX,which is used to capture the tail risk spillover between industries,and the Poisson panel empirical model is used to verify the financial industry.There is a tail risk spillover effect between the real economy sectors,exploring the impact of industry characteristic variables such as industry concentration,debt level,valuation and investment level on tail risk spillovers,and analyzing the differences in tail risk spillovers under the stability of different economic policies.The empirical results were tested by Wilcoxon test and robustness test.The study found that: First,there is a tail risk contagion between the financial industry and the real economic sector,and the financial industry's tail risk spillover to the physical sector is greater than the physical sector's reverse tail risk spillover to the financial industry;second,the industry characteristics of the financial Risk transmission has a major impact.The specific performance is that the industry concentration and debt scale of China's real economy industry have a positive effect on the tail market risk spillover of the financial industry.The industry valuation level has a significant negative impact on the tail financial risk spillover.There is no significant positive impact on risk spillovers.Third,in the period of uncertain economic policy,the financial industry's tail risk spillovers to the real economy industry increase,and the industry's ability to influence tail risks increases.Finally,combined with theoretical analysis and empirical results verification,in the face of the new era of industrial development environment,this paper puts forward the following suggestions on China's financial market construction: First,give full play to the industry competition mechanism,vigorously support small and medium-sized business entities,and improve the competitiveness of the industry,enterprises should Constantly improve its own value,maintain the debt scale at a reasonable level,focus on risk prevention and enhance risk awareness;second,banks and other financial institutions should strengthen and improve financial supervision and improve risk absorption capacity;third,relevant departments should combine industry actual characteristics Formulate reasonable industrial support policies for universities,establish market-based risk management mechanisms,and improve and develop multi-level capital markets to promote industry development and prevent financial risks.