The Impact Of Exchange Rate Fluctuation On The Adjustment Of China’s Industrial Structure

In recent years,with the slowdown of China’s economic growth,economic development has entered a new normal of structural adjustment and growth.In the context of the new normal,our government has always taken industrial restructuring as an important measure for economic development.Therefore,how to achieve the adjustment and upgrading of the industrial structure has become an urgent issue to be solved in our country.As an important price variable,the fluctuation of the exchange rate can affect the adjustment of a country’s industrial structure by influencing the import and export trade of a country and foreign direct investment.Since China began to implement a managed floating exchange rate system in 1994,the RMB exchange rate marketization degree deepening,especially in the exchange rate reform in 2005,the RMB exchange rate from unilateral appreciation into today’s two-way fluctuation,the trend of exchange rate fluctuations,the uncertainty of exchange rate changes direction and amplitude also will increase,this a series of changes to our country industrial structure adjustment and new impact running across the economy.It can be seen that under the new economic background,studying the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the adjustment of industrial structure has very important practical and theoretical significance.It is not only necessary to examine the impact of changes in the exchange rate but also to examine the impact of fluctuations in exchange rate fluctuations.This article uses a combination of theoretical analysis and applied research,a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods.First of all,through the analysis of the mechanism of exchange rate fluctuations affecting the industrial structure,combined with the evolution of China’s exchange rate system and the general situation of industrial structure development,a statistical description of the relationship between the two methods.Secondly,this paper selects two VAR models from variables such as industrial structure optimization index,output value of the three major industries,RMB real effective exchange rate,RMB real effective exchange rate volatility,total import and export volume and foreign direct investment.Through the co-integration test,the error Correction,impulse response and variance decomposition analysis,respectively,the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on the upgrading of industrial structure and the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on the development of the three major industries.The empirical results show that RMB appreciation can promote the optimization of industrial structure,promote the development of the tertiary industry and restrain the development of primary industry and secondary industry.The volatility of RMB exchange rate has a negative correlation with the optimization of industrial structure and the development of the secondary and tertiary industries,but for now,the impact is not obvious.The expansion of total import and export trade and the increase of foreign direct investment all promote the optimization of industrial structure.However,by variance decomposition,the contribution of import and export trade to the optimization of industrial structure is greater than that of foreign direct investment.Finally,on the basis of theoretical and empirical analysis,this paper argues that at this stage,China should continue to maintain the stability of the RMB exchange rate and the progressive reform of the exchange rate system,make full use of import and export trade to promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure,and at the same time attach great importance to giving full play to foreign direct investment The role of industrial restructuring.