Research On The Impact Of Financial Asset Allocation On Cash Flow Risk

In the critical period of economic transformation,the demographic dividends and resource dividends are gradually fading.In addition,overcapacity and insufficient external demand have arisen.Entity enterprises are generally caught in the dilemma of low returns.At the same time,the financial industry is profitable due to the advantage of interest rate control;with the advancement of urbanization,the real estate industry has been extremely prosperous,and the return on capital is high.In the case of widening profit margins between industries,the cross-industry arbitrage motives of entity enterprises are enhanced,and business objectives are short-sighted.It is reflected in the rapid growth of corporate financial assets allocation.As a result,the structure of industrial capital and financial capital is unbalanced,the stability of the capital chain is reduced,the financial crisis is frequent,and the real economy is excessively volatile.Based on this phenomenon,the government emphasizes the importance of “anti-risk”.The key is to “prevent financial institutions from serving more to virtual economy instead of real economy”.Therefore,from the perspective of risk management,this paper studies the effect of financial asset allocation on cash flow risk,and considers the impact of financial leverage on the relationship between financial asset allocation and cash flow risk under the macro-prudential supervision theory,which have important practical significances.On the one hand,cash flow risk can monitor the stability and sustainability of cash flow,and intuitively reflect the financial status and business performance.Analysis of cash flow risk can provide specific methods for the dynamic balance management of corporate cash flow and the prevention and resolution of risks in the context of economic financialization.on the other hand,Financial leverage reflects the relationship between the real economy and the macrofinancial system,and is related to the risk cost of the real economy.It can better meet the real needs of real economic risk prevention under the new normal of China’s economy combined with the background of financial leverage.The following conclusions are obtained:(1)As financial asset allocation increases,the cash flow risk decreases first and then increases.There is a U-shaped relationship between the proportion of corporate financial assets allocation and cash flow risk.The robustness test found that the financial asset allocation increment increased cash flow risk,and to some extent supports the financial accelerator theory.(2)Various types of financial assets have different risk performances.Specifically,the relationship between market financial products and cash flow risk is U-shaped;taking account of China’s real estate regulation policies,the positive relationship between financial assets and cash flow risk is obvious for investment property;the relationship between entrusted loans and other emerging financial assets and cash flow risk is U-shaped;there is no significant relationship between financial equity investment and cash flow risk.(3)Financial leverage can aggravate the trend of financialization,influence the ability of enterprises to cope with liquidity shocks,and moderate the relationship between financial asset allocation and cash flow risk.That is,the relationship has been weakened while shifting the inflection point to the right.(4)Combined with the nature of property rights,it is found that the U-shaped relationship between financial asset allocation and cash flow risk is common in state-owned and non state-owned enterprises.In particular,the U-shaped relationship between market financial products and cash flow risk is only significant in state-owned enterprises;the positive relationship between investment property and cash flow risk only occurs in non state-owned enterprises after the implementation of real estate regulation policies;there is no significant difference in U-shaped relationships between entrusted loans and other emerging financial assets and cash flow risks in state-owned and non-state-owned enterprises;financial equity investment in state-owned enterprises has a significant positive impact on cash flow risk.Financing dilemmas and risk appetite make non state-owned enterprises more vulnerable to financial leverage.The suggestions are as follows:(1)Rational allocation of financial assets.Manufacturing enterprises should understand the country’s macro policy orientation,accurately estimate the risk of financial assets,and then combine their own cash flow status and development characteristics,reduce investment short-sighted behaviors,focus on and return to the main business and coordinate the relationship between industrial development and financial investment.(2)Optimize the financial assets allocation structure.State-owned enterprises should give priority to a certain degree of entrusted loans and other emerging financial assets when making financial assets allocation;in the case of ensuring the sustainable development of the main business,market financial products and investment property can be invested;financial equity investment should not become an investment choice of enterprises.The preferred financial investment for non state-owned enterprises is moderate market financial products and entrusted loans and other emerging financial assets;financial equity investment can be held when the development demand of the main business is satisfied;investment property should not be selected as a selection channel considering real estate regulation policies.(3)Fully consider the impact of financial leverage and enhance awareness of risk prevention.Non state-owned enterprises should combine macro-prudential supervision policies to clarify the root causes of financial investment risks and maintain the stability of the capital chain.