Determining Insurance Rates Of Human-Elephant Conflict In Xishuangbanna Based On Risk Assessment

With the continuous growth of the current population,the increasing material needs of human beings and the continuous expansion of living space have led to a sharp decline in the quality of the original habitat of wild animals.The area of virgin forests has been reduced,water resources have been exhausted,the ozone layer has been destroyed,and Marine pollution has been rampant.Species’ natural desire for survival makes humans and wild animals compete and seize each other in the current limited resource environment.Therefore,there exists the contradiction of survival interest between human beings and wild animals.Taking Asian elephants as the representative,this paper studies the evolution of the relationship between them and the villagers in the activity area.Based on the claim data of Asian elephants and the research results of the ecological behavior of Asian elephants,this paper applies the generalized linear model and the net equilibrium theory to quantify the risk of human conflict in xishuangbanna,so as to determine the pure premium of human-elephant conflict in xishuangbanna.Finally,this study also compares and analyzes the determination results under these two methods with the current government compensation standards.The main research contents are as follows:(1)From 2011 to 2016,the summary table of total compensation amount of Asian elephants caused by accident in xishuangbanna counted 18 types of loss types,among which the total compensation amount of corn belonging to crops was the largest in six years,which was 17235693 yuan,accounting for 28% of the total compensation amount.The second category is bananas,which are cash crops.The total compensation amount is 10331,240 yuan,accounting for 17% of the total compensation amount.(2)In this study,through cluster analysis of 21 risk factors,the optimal number of clusters of damaged villages in xishuangbanna from 2011 to 2016 was calculated as 3,and the Numbers in each cluster were 62,94 and 50,respectively.By taking the compensation amount of damaged villages in each cluster as the dependent variable,a generalized linear model is established.The results show that the best regression models are lognormal models.Based on this model,the annual pure premiums of each cluster and each damaged village are 25951.0 yuan,17837.6 yuan and 34934.9 yuan respectively.(3)In ArcGIS,the average risk indexes of the risk-free region,low-risk region,medium-risk region and high-risk region can be obtained by setting buffer zones for damaged villages: 11.34,30.80,50.02 and 65.09.Finally,based on the results of the two actuarial models,this paper puts forward some Suggestions.Combined with the generalized linear model,the extracted 21 risk factors were analyzed,and the log-normal regression model was established to obtain the high-risk factors,safety factors and irrelevant factors in the human-image conflicts with significant characteristics,and the preventive measures were proposed in advance.For example,the government and villagers should reasonably plan their living place and planting structure of crops.According to the net equilibrium theory,the optimal distributions of compensation amounts for 17 types of losses are lognormal distributions.In the four risk areas,the annual net unit premium of 17 types of losses totaled 1718.33 yuan,4127.49 yuan,7578.63 yuan and 9862.60 yuan,so as to achieve reasonable and scientific post-event compensation.This paper puts forward the insurance method of dispersing the risk of human-elephant conflict on the problem of causing human-elephant conflict in xishuangbanna.