Research On The Relationship Between Domestic And Foreign Crude Oil Futures Price And China's Crude Oil Spot Price

When the oil crisis occurred in the early 1970s,the world oil market was hit hard.At the same time,the world oil price experienced a period of violent fluctuations,and oil futures were launched in this context.Like other commodity futures,oil futures have also played a role in stabilizing prices and avoiding risks.After the 1980s,crude oil futures,as the most important oil futures,developed rapidly and gradually became the basis for pricing the crude oil spot market.The crude oil futures price gradually became the benchmark price of crude oil.As the world's largest importer of crude oil,China has not had the right to speak on crude oil pricing for many years.For the entire Asia-Pacific region,it has not been able to have a say in crude oil pricing for nearly two decades.Due to the increase in crude oil imports,the premiums of expenditures due to the "Asian premium"are also increasing.The impact of fluctuations in crude oil prices on China's economic operations is also growing.In order to change this situation and participate in the "contention battle" of crude oil pricing power in the future,Shanghai International Energy Trading Center,a subsidiary of China Futures Exchange,officially listed crude oil futures on March 26,2018.The relationship between futures prices and spot prices has always been a matter of concern.The prevailing view is that futures prices have a price discovery function for their spot prices,and there is a certain causal effect between the two.The price discovery function of futures has always been regarded as one of the important functions of the futures market,and is often regarded as an important measure of the level of market development.In the context of China's introduction of Shanghai crude oil futures,this paper conducts a comprehensive study on the relationship between the price of international crude oil futures and China's crude oil spot and the relationship between China's Shanghai crude oil futures price and China's crude oil spot price.In the fourth part of this paper,the Brent crude oil futures price and the Daqing crude oil spot price data were selected from January 14,2008 to January 15,2019.It was found by EG cointegration test that there is a cointegration relationship between the two,there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the two,and the Granger causality test and the vector error correction model are used to analyze the price-guided relationship between Brent crude oil futures and Daqing crude oil spot.The results show that there is a mutual guiding relationship between the two.In the deviation from equilibrium,Brent crude oil futures adjustment is relatively fast,but the difference is not big.After that,the quantile regression is introduced to explore the guiding relationship of different fluctuations.The results show that the guiding effect of spot on futures and the guiding effect of futures on spot are declining,that is,they all have a higher guiding role in the down period;the daily settlement price of the continuous contract of Shanghai crude oil futures from March 26,2018 to January 14,2019 and the spot price of Daqing crude oil are selected.Data,through EG cointegration test,found that there is no cointegration relationship between the two,that is,there is no long-term equilibrium relationship between the two.After passing the above empirical research,this paper makes a summary analysis based on the results obtained in the fifth part of the article,combined with the actual situation in China,and puts forward some suggestions for the future development of Shanghai crude oil futures.