Study On Export Cycle And Driving Factors In China

Since the reform and opening up,exports have always been one of the important engines of China's economic growth.Since the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008,the uncertainty of the international economic situation has increased significantly,and China's export growth has also experienced dramatic fluctuations.Since July 2018,the Sino-US trade war has escalated,which has led to a more severe export situation in China and its influencing factors.From the perspective of cyclical fluctuations,this paper combines domestic and international periodic theory and trade theory to measure and analyze the characteristics and laws of China's export growth rate cyclical fluctuations,and adopts the nonlinear econometric model to influence the driving factors and influence of export growth.Degree of empirical research.This helps to judge the specific stage and future trend of China's export growth cycle.helps the government to accurately judge China's macroeconomic trends and has important reference value for the Chinese government to formulate macroeconomic policies.China's export growth is closely related to the global economic trend,and its influencing factors are complex and time-varying.Therefore,this paper mainly uses the time-varying probability Markov system transfer(MS-TVTP)model to analyze the cyclical fluctuation of China's export growth rate and its Influencing factors.The model not only captures more complex and transient fluctuations,but also allows the state to change dramatically before the transition.Based on the year-on-year growth rate of exports from January 2000 to June 2018 and its differential data,this paper constructs a two-zone MS-TVTP model that reflects the period of expansion and contraction,in order to accurately identify the turning point of the export cycle and the factors affecting exports.The main findings of this paper are as follows:1.Through the screening of more than 300 domestic and foreign indicators,this paper finds the leading and consistent indicators of export growth rate and synthesizes the index.Using the export growth rate indicator for cyclical fluctuations,from January 2000 to June 2018,China experienced four rounds of complete export cycle fluctuations of varying lengths.The duration of each cycle is about 24-56.Between months.The first cycle shows an asymmetrical feature of "long expansion and short contraction",and the second to fourth round of periodic fluctuations exhibits an asymmetrical feature of "short expansion and long contraction".After entering the "new normal state",China's export amplitude showed a stable state.According to the preliminary and consistent synthesis and diffusion index analysis,it can be tentatively set as the peak point in February 2018.It is expected that the Sino-US trade war will have little impact on China's exports in the short term,and will have a strong impact on China's exports in the long run.2.The Markov model is used to further identify China's export cycle fluctuations(peak-valley).The likelihood ratio test is carried out on the Markov model with the fixed probability Markov model and the leading index as the driving factor.The results show that the Markov model with the leading index is statistically necessary.In addition,this paper studies the foreign demand factors(OECD leading index,US business confidence index,Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index)and domestic supply factors(China business confidence index,crude steel output growth in the current period).Rate)The impact of cyclical fluctuations in China's export growth rate.The results show that the fixed probability and the time-varying probability Markov model that introduces the leading indicator are basically consistent with the BB method of China's export growth rate before and after the financial crisis.Because of the limitation of the period identification standard by the BB method,the short fluctuation of less than 6 months is Automatically ignored,but the Markov model with fixed and time-varying probabilities can be accurately identified.3.From the two aspects of foreign demand and domestic supply factors,the impact on China's export growth rate and its impact degree are analyzed.The results show that the time-varying Markov model with the driving factor has a worse effect on the identification of the export cycle than the fixed-probability Markov model.The reason may be that the fluctuation of the current export growth rate already contains the relevant information of the leading index.The role of the leading index in the "post-event" cycle is limited.The estimation results in the six time-varying probability models show that in the expansion period,the transfer of the leading indicator from the contraction phase to the expansion phase promotes the export.The effect of further expansion is limited;in the systolic to dilated transition,the leading indicator from contraction to expansion has a significant positive effect on the export cycle from contraction to expansion.The above two points show that the leading indicators have obvious zoning dependence on the driving force of China's export cycle.The foreign demand factors have the greatest impact on China's export cycle in the first three and five phases,while the domestic indicators have the greatest impact on China's export cycle in the first six phases.The foreign demand indicators have a significant impact on China's export cycle fluctuations,while crude steel production is in China.The impact of the export cycle is not significant.The above research conclusions show that domestic factors have a longer lag period and a lower degree of influence on China's export fluctuations than foreign demand factors.The innovations of this paper mainly have the following two points:On the one hand,the export cycle is measured in detail using the boom analysis method,and the consistent and leading indicators reflecting the fluctuations of the export cycle are screened;on the other hand,adopt time-varying Probability Markov model analysis of export cycle fluctuations is not only an extension of China's export cycle fluctuation research method,but also can fully analyze the driving factors affecting export cycle fluctuations and their impact degree.