Research On Application Of Real Option In Asset Securitization Pricing Of PPP Project

At present,China's public infrastructure construction has achieved rapid development,but at the same time with the rapid development of many problems.For example,the construction of social public infrastructure belongs to people's livelihood projects,which must be vigorously constructed.However,due to the government's strict control over the pricing power of public infrastructure projects,as well as the need to invest a large amount of capital in the early stage of public infrastructure construction and the long recovery cycle,the enthusiasm of social capital participation is not high,making social capital not effectively utilized.In recent years,the government has tried to introduce PPP model to construct social public infrastructure projects,so that social capital can effectively participate in the construction of public infrastructure projects while also achieving certain benefits.Through PPP model,the government can reduce financial pressure and improve social welfare,while social capital can get more room for development,and both sides can achieve win-win situation.If we can make social capital obtain investment income of PPP project ahead of time through asset securitization of PPP project,we can mobilize the enthusiasm of social capital and make social capital fully participate in public infrastructure construction projects.The core issue of PPP project asset securitization is pricing.For asset securitization pricing,domestic pricing methods mainly include cash flow discount method,spread method and option adjustment spread method,etc.But because most of PPP projects are public infrastructure projects,there are long construction cycle and construction in these projects.There are many uncertainties and hidden values in the process.The above pricing methods can not effectively evaluate the real value of PPP project asset securitization.In recent years,the rapid development of real option method has effectively compensated for the insufficient value of cash flow discount method,spread method and option adjustment spread method in estimating PPP project asset securitization.Real option is the option of real assets,which is defined from the perspective of options.When social capital invests in real assets,it will surely face many uncertainties.When social capital decides whether to invest through the analysis of these uncertainties,it is a right of choice.This option is an option,and options are of implicit value.Because of the existence of project real option,real option method is often used to evaluate the investment of industrial projects with more uncertainties.This paper mainly discusses the pricing method of PPP project asset securitization value.The first step is to discuss the classification of asset securitization theory,public goods theory and PPP model;the second step is to discuss the real options implied in PPP project;the third step is to discuss the current conventional valuation methods and the shortcomings in practical application;the fourth step is to discuss the real options method in the pricing of PPP project asset securitization.Fifth step,this paper chooses "Guangfa Hengjin-Guangsheng Dongjiang Green Source PPP Project" as an example,calculates the option value of the project by using the real option theory pricing method-binary tree model method,and calculates the actual value of the PPP project by combining the option value and the net present value of the project cash flow,so as to realize the real value of the PPP project.P project asset securitization pricing.The innovation of this paper is to break through the traditional method of PPP project in asset securitization pricing-the present value pricing model of expected cash flow income.By discovering the real options contained in PPP project,we use the new method of combining Monte Carlo method with real option method to calculate the implied option value of PPP project and carry out it.The pricing of asset securitization.The shortcomings of this paper are as follows:Firstly,the future cash flow life of Guangfa Hengj in-Guangsheng Dongjiang Green Source PPP Project is only 15 years,and there may be a problem of insufficient cash flow life;secondly,this paper makes a functional assumption on the sensitive factors of Guangfa Hengjin-Guangsheng Dongjiang Green Source PPP Project.At the same time,the change rule of the past sewage treatment industry is studied.The assumptions made on the data may have some errors with the actual data changes,which will cause certain assumption errors in the volatility of the project.