Trade Policy Uncertainty,Tariff Changes And Enterprises Survival

At present,the international political situation is volatile,meanwhile,the international economic and political relations are increasingly complicated.The rise of trade protectionism and the emergence of counter-globalization have caused an impact on the international business environment.Trade frictions occur frequently because of the increasing uncertainty of trade policy world widely,so Chinese companies face severe survival challenges in the international market.In-depth analysis of the impact of trade policy uncertainty on the survival of different enterprises will help to enhance the competitiveness of enterprises as well as promote the survival of enterprises in the international market.This paper uses the 2001-2006 customs database on enterprise level and the WTO and World Bank tariff data to measure the company's trade policy uncertainty,export tariffs and imported intermediate tariffs,combined with the Chinese industrial enterprise database and refer to EstevePerez(2011),we construct the cloglog model to study the impact of trade policy uncertainty,tariff changes and the interaction between the two on the survival of enterprises.at the stratified sample level,to find the divergence between enterprises in different types and scales.We further study the impact on enterprises survival of trade policy uncertainty,The results show that: Firstly,on the overall level,the uncertainty of export trade policy has a significant negative impact on the survival of enterprises,and export tariffs have a significant positive impact on the survival of enterprises.Secondly,the impact of import trade policies uncertainty is not significant,imported intermediates tariff has a significant negative impact on the survival of enterprises;thirdly,with the increase of the trade policy uncertainty,the positive effect of export tariff on the survival of enterprises is weakened,and the negative effect of imported intermediates tariff on the survival of enterprises is enhanced;The results of stratified evidence show that the survival of local enterprises as well as small and micro enterprises is more negatively affected by the export trade policies uncertainty and imported intermediates tariff.Finally,this paper uses different regression models and the impact of the exogenous policy variables of China's accession to the WTO to test the robustness of the empirical results,and finds that all empirical results pass the robustness test.This paper enriches the study of trade policy uncertainty on the survival of enterprises,and proposes relevant policy recommendations for enterprises and governments,which provides some reference for improving the survival time of enterprises in the international market.