| For a long time,investment has been the biggest driver of China’s economic growth.The changes in investment also reflect the economic vitality of our country.This paper first analyzes the development of western investment theory,and chooses the neoclassical investment theory as the foundation and combines the new growth investment theory point of view,summarizes the factors that affect the investment,and make theoretical judgments.Under the three assumptions of investor rationality,factor market clearing and constant returns to scale of production function,theoretical studies show that the main factors affecting investment are total demand,interest rate,financial efficiency,capital goods price,general price level,depreciation rate,capital Remuneration in output share,capital stock and technical level.The theoretical direction of the various factors is that aggregate demand,financial efficiency,general price level,the share of capital remuneration in output,and the technical level have a positive effect on investment.Interest rates and capital goods prices have a negative impact on investment.The effects of capital stock levels and depreciation rates on investment may be positive or negative.Through the establishment of multiple regression models,this paper conducts an empirical analysis of China’s total social fixed asset investment.The results show that the main influencing factors are interest rate,export,technology,general price and material capital stock.Among them,the direction of interest rate is positive,which contradicts the conclusion of investment theory,which shows that the interest rate of our country is not marketized and can not reflect the cost of investment.The positive impact of exports coincides with the conclusion of our investment theory.The negative effect of technology is the opposite of the conclusion of our investment theory.It may be that the current measure of the TFP growth rate in our country is very inconsistent and varies greatly.It is also possible that our country’s technological level has not brought an increase in the marginal return on capital,Or that although the marginal return of capital has been brought up,the capital owner has not been paid correspondingly.The impact of the general price is positive,in line with the conclusions of the investment theory.The positive impact of capital stock shows that the current level of capital stock in our country is still relatively low compared with our country’s economy and is in the stage of increasing marginal returns to capital.In the meantime,the result of Johansen’s cointegration test shows that in the long run,the impact of interest rates is small.The impact of export demand in the long run is greater than the short term,indicating that the investment in fixed assets has some lag in response to external demand.The level of capital stock in the long-term impact on China’s fixed asset investment is also small,indicating that as China’s capital stock increases,the marginal return of capital gradually diminish the impact of gradual decline in the future may enter the stage,so that the direction of its impact Become negative.Carry on the positive analysis to the fixed assets investment of each main body,each constitution and each area respectively.The investment of state-owned entities more reflects the direction of a policy and is not a market-oriented act.However,relative to the investment in fixed assets by non-governmental entities,the foreign investors have a significant impact on domestic demand and financial efficiency.The possible reasons are as follows: First,the fixed asset investment of foreign investors tends to be short-term demand effect;second,early China has more financing preferential policies for foreign investment.The impact of the price level on the purchase of equipment and tools is even more obvious.Construction and installation works do not react to price changes.The level of capital stock does not affect the purchase of equipment and tools.Capital stock level.Capital stock does not have a significant impact on investment in the Northeast,unlike the rest of the country.In the meantime,compared with the central and western regions,the capital stock in the eastern region has the greatest impact on investment,indicating that the increasing returns to scale is higher in the eastern region.The results of the regression between the central region and the western region are quite similar.The influencing factors are the same,mainly including interest rate,external demand,technology,general price level and capital stock.This article holds that it is still feasible to promote the expansion of investment in fixed assets in the whole society at present.At the same time,the related investment structure should also be adjusted.Mainly to expand consumer demand,continue to deepen market-based interest rates,plus investment in technology research and development to speed up the process of urbanization and promote labor force increase and quality improvement. |
