An Empirical Analysis On The Financial Decelerator Effect Based On TVAR Model

This paper takes the effect of financial retarder as the research object.Recently,the literature of the financial accelerator is more abundant.In the thesis writing,the reducer phenomenon also exists in economic life.With the support of this concept,this paper finds that the literature of the financial retarder is less,and the analysis from the empirical point of view is less by consulting the literature.Therefore,this paper takes the effect of the financial retarder as the research object,and strives to make up for the deficiency in this aspect.This paper first combs the basic theory of the financial retarder,and studies it from five main aspects,and finally carries out an empirical analysis through the TVAR model.The analysis of this paper is divided into two parts.The first part is theoretical analysis,which is mainly related to the mechanism of the financial reducer.It includes:(1)because of the decrease in prices,the change of corporate asset prices may lead to an increase in the net assets value of enterprises,thereby loosening the credit constraints of enterprises.(2)the recessive guarantee mechanism of state-owned banks,the essence of which is the expansion of bank credit.As a result of the recessive guarantee of national bankruptcy,the system actually plays the role of the financial reducer.(3)the improvement of the level of financial development will help to resist financial risks,improve the marginal efficiency of capital and thus improve the efficiency of the economy.(4)state owned economy occupies an important position in China's economic system,and state-owned enterprises have a credit rationing position in the banking sector.Therefore,the financial slowdown plays a role in the downward trend of the economy.(5)the regulation of interest rate and loan interest not only strengthens the implicit guarantee effect of state-owned banks,but also ensures the effect of state-owned economy,and ensures the medium and long-term capital raising of enterprises.In order to eliminate the influence of price on other variables,the year 1995 CPI price index,the original data of the variables of the price deflator.Secondly,this paper uses the proportion of financial budgetary income to measure the recessive guarantee effect of state-owned banks.Then this paper uses M3/GDP to measure the level of financial development in China.Finally,we measure the state-owned economy effect and loan interest rate constraint effect by the difference between state-owned enterprises' social fixed investment proportion,short-term loan benchmark interest rate and interbank 7 day interbank interest rate.The second part is an empirical study based on the TVAR model.First of all,this paper selects five variables: output,consumption,investment,trade and credit.The samples are monthly data from January 2006 to September 2017.After eliminating the price factors,the original data are adjusted seasonally,then logarithm and first order difference are processed.Finally,the indicators are brought into the TVAR model to construct an empirical test which does not contain the effect of the financial slowdown.Then select M3/GDP and other indicators,and take the loan balance of financial institutions as threshold variables,add the corresponding variables to the TVAR model to test,and compare the test results with those without reducer.Through the test,it is found that the impact of the variables on the fluctuation of output and the impact of inflation have varying degrees of ease,that is,the effect of the financial retarder.Among them,the implicit financial guarantee and loan interest rate control of state-owned banks are more obvious when the credit level is low,but the effect of the decelerator decreases with the development of Finance and the degree of economic monetization.Finally,this paper puts forward the measures of classification reform and governance of state-owned enterprises to bring into play the effect of financial retarder and stabilize the economic fluctuation.