| This paper empirically analyzes the time varying effects and the threshold effects of monetary policy and stock price on the housing price based on the LT-TVP-VAR model with data ranges from 2006 to 2016.According to the research,firstly,the impacts of monetary policy and stock price changes on housing price changes is very significant and there exists time varying effects and policy asymmetric effects,which can be seen as follows:(1)The regulation effects of quantitative monetary policy is stronger than price monetary policy.(2)The impacts of loose money supply and credit on housing prices in downward housing price situations are obviously stronger than the effects of tight monetary and credit policy in upward housing price situations.(3)Monetary policy and stock price have different impacts on housing price during different periods.(4)Stock price has significant substitution effects on the housing price when the stock market is active.Besides,there exists threshold effects and regulation devour effects in the impacts on housing price from monetary policy and stock price.Based on the conclusions,the following suggestions for policy makers are proposed:(1)Pay great attention to quantitative regulation policies and make structural tight monetary policies cautiously;(2)Make differentiated and targeted monetary policy and watch out the speculation in real estate and stock markets according to the cycle of these markets;(3)lay particular emphasis on the structural transformation and devour effects of the policy effects;(4)Give consideration to both the Macro-level and Micro-level,regulate the market in multidimensional way. |
