Loose Monetary Policy,Interest Rate Of Peer-to-peer Lending,and Investor Risk-taking

The research object of the impact investor risk-taking from the loose monetary policy mainly focus on bank risk level at present,but the indexs used to identify the investor risk-taking on the formal credit market still exist some shortcomings,it mainly owing to the lack of more detail and open loan datas in chinese formal credit market.In recent years,the active P2 P lending market has precipitated a large number of detailed and public datas,providing a good opportunity to identify the impact of monetary policy on investor risk taking.This paper adopts transaction datas from the typical P2 P lending platform —— "renrendai",identifing investor risk-taking by comparing the change of the probability that high-risk borrowers got the loans successfully and the ex-default rate after the loose monetary policy through Probit model,extending the research from the formal credit level to private credit level.It is found that loose monetary policy is effective in the P2 P lending market,which can significantly reduce the interest rate of P2 P lending market,and investors significantly increase the risk appetite.The results showed as follows: after the loose policy,the probability of the high-risk borrowers got the loans successfully increased significantly compared with the common risk borrowers,however the probability of the overall borrowers got the loans successfully did not change significantly;the loan interest rate of the high-risk borrowers has not declined significantly,which means investors haven't reduce the risk premium to the high-risk borrowers extraly,it mainly owing to investor searching for yield to borrow more money to the high-risk borrowers,excessive guarantees and liquidity of the platform could strengthen the effect.The post-event default rate of high-risk projects did not rise significantly,making it difficult to judge whether investors were rational to increase their investment in high-risk projects.According to the research of this paper,government can strengthen the supervision of P2 P lending platforms and encourage them to guide investors to invest rationaly and integrate the risk perception of P2 P lending investors into the financial risk supervision system to promote the P2 P lending market developing healthily.