The Impact Of RMB Exchange Rate Changes On Hunan Province's Import And Export Trade Volume

The balance of trade theory holds that changes in the exchange rate level will change the balance of trade in a country,which will affect the national economy.Since the exchange rate reform in 2005,on the one hand,the continuous appreciation of the RMB will have an impact on Hunan's import and export trade.On the other hand,the increase in exchange rate fluctuations has also increased the risk of import and export trade in Hunan Province.Now China is currently in the special period of shifting the growth rate of GDP from high-speed growth to medium-high speed growth,the period of economic structural transformation and upgrading,and the “three-phase superposition” of pre-stimulus policy digestion period,it is so important to china that the macro-economy is operating smoothly.Hunan Province,as a strong economic province in the central region,ranks among the top ten in the country for two consecutive years.It is of great significance to study the impact of changes in the exchange rate of the RMB on Hunan's import and export trade volume and to ensure the sustained and healthy development of Hunan's economy and macroeconomic stability.This article is based on the analysis of asymmetry in the study of exchange rate transfer effects,by defining three forms of exchange rate changes,and using empirical methods such as structural vector autoregressive model and related empirical methods to investigate the relationship between the exchange rate of RMB and the import and export volume of Hunan Province.The empirical results show that the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on the import and export trade volume of Hunan province is asymmetric;the impact of different exchange rate changes on import and export trade volume is also different.On the import side,the positive impact of RMB depreciation is greater than As for the appreciation of the RMB,on the export side,the impact of the RMB depreciation fluctuates slowly to zero,while the appreciation of the RMB does not see a recovery trend in the medium-long term.The potential risk of appreciation for export trade is greater than the devaluation.In addition,whether it is appreciation or devaluation,it is found through variance decomposition that there is a time lag in the exchange of exchange rate changes on the price level of exports.