Research On Spatial Correlation And Influencing Factors Of China's Local Government Liability

Since the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008,the Chinese government has taken a series of countermeasures and successfully promoted the rapid economic recovery of China.But at the same time,it also led to the rise of local government liability.With the deepening of China's industrialization and urbanization process,the liability problem of local governments has become increasingly severe,and it shows the characteristics of spatial correlation.In the increasingly fierce competition among local governments in various provinces and municipalities,is there a “liability competition” between local governments in addition to tax competition? Are there any spatial correlations between the liability of provinces and cities? These problems have caused our attention when the liability risk is gradually exposed.Based on the local government liability data for 2013 and 2016,the paper analyzes the status quo of local government liability in various provinces in China from an overall and regional perspective,and draws a map of liability spatial distribution according to the liability ratios of each province and city.Afterwards,using Geoda and Stata software,a global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis of local government liability was performed.The analysis showed that there was indeed a positive spatial correlation for the local government liability.Moreover,the distribution of spatial correlation among provinces and cities can be clearly seen from the Moran'I index and the LISA agglomeration map.Most provinces and cities are located in H-H or L-L areas.L-L agglomeration mainly occurs in the economically developed eastern coastal areas,and HH agglomeration mainly occurs in the central and western regions.Through the analysis of the spatial correlation between the liability of various provinces and cities,the article finds out the factors that influence the spatial dependence of local government liability,including GDP growth rate,urbanization rate,investment in fixed assets,fiscal revenue,and fiscal expenditure.With the help of spatial econometrics,empirical tests have examined the influence coefficients of the factors that influence the spatial correlation of local government liability.Comparing the regression results of the general econometric model and the spatial econometric model,the study found that the local government liability has a spatial lag effect and the spatial correlation is significant.The ratio of fixed asset investment,fiscal revenue,fiscal self-sufficiency,and fiscal revenue stability have a positive correlation with the government liability ratio.GDP growth rate and urbanization rate have a negative correlation with government liability ratio.At the same time,based on the empirical analysis results,this article summarizes the research results and the conclusions are as follows.First,China's local government liability stock is huge,and the regional distribution is uneven.Second,there is spatial autocorrelation in China's local government liability.Third,there is a clear spatial agglomeration effect on government liability.According to the conclusions reached,the author gave corresponding policies.Finally,the author gives the research prospect,briefly discusses the bold conception of indepth study of local government liability problems and the infeasibility of practice,and looks forward to follow-up study and research.