An Improvement Research On The Assessment Method Of The Present Value Of Income Of Commercial Banks' Enterprise Value On The Of Business Cycle

As a special financial system,commercial banks' business tasks have extended to every corner of this economic society.How to analyze the influence of the economic cycle to the valuation of commercial banks effectively have an important impacts to grasp the trend of the macro-economy and adjust the business strategy of commercial banks according to the changes in the economic cycle.And then,it can grasp the value of commercial banks accurately,also it can improve the evaluation method of the value of commercial banks,and to promote the devolpment of the valuation of assets.From the two angles of theory and practice,this paper analyzes and validates the relationship between business cycle and the value of commercial banks.At the theoretical level,through the domestic and foreign research literature and books,firstly it analysis the economic cycle theory specific,then the current mainstream enterprise value evaluation method is examined,and also it analysisthe applicability to commercial banks.From the empirical point of view,in order to test the reasonableness of theoretical deduction and related discussion,this paper based on the sample of 13 domestic listed commercial banks in 2007~2016 years,respectively expresses the economic cycle through the growth rate of gross domestic product,and the growth rate of broad money supply and the growth rate of the consumer price index respectively.The empirical analysis is made on the stochastic effect model of the cycle and the value of commercial banks.Through the positive analysis of the positive impact of the economic cycle on the business value of commercial banks and the introduction of the macroeconomic cycle variables,the growth rate of gross domestic product,the growth rate of the broad money supply and the growth rate of the consumer price index,the free cash flow model of the income method of the business value assessment method of commercial banks is introduced.