Research On Risk Management Of Livable City Senior Care Real Estate Project

By the end of 2017,the total population of the country has reached 1 billion 390 million,and the number of people whose age over 60 has reached 241 million,whose age over 65 has reached 158 million.Aging in China has entered into a high speed of development,at the same time the elderly is becoming older and older.Old-age has become a common problem that the government and the society are facing with,the importance and necessity of old-age display.The traditional living ways of the elderly can not satisfy them,so the demand for old-age real estate is increasing.In order to cope with the conditions,many real estate enterprises are trying to enter the old-age real estate market,especially those habitable cities have greater market attraction.However,the number of successful projects in habitable city is small.Real estate in habitable city is in short supply due to it needs more cost and investment recovery period is long.Seeking the reasons,one is real estate enterprises lack standardized evaluation methods for controlling the risk of old-age real estate projects in the habitable cities,the other is that the market is immature.Therefore,constructing the risk management index system and risk management model of habitable city pension real estate project is the key to solving the problem.In this paper,by analysing some cases and reading many papers,65 factors those affecting old-age real estate in habitable city were selected from four aspects:human,things,environment and management.Questionnaire survey was conducted among the professional people and those who are in need,selected more influence factors from 65 factors.Using SPSS 19.0 software to analysis the 688 questionnaires,picking up the 21 most important public factors to build rational,intuitive,and applicable old-age real estate project risk evaluation system in habitable city.Then,according to the survey results,with the help of bayesian network analysis software GeNIe2.1,combined with professional knowledge,building habitable city old-age real estate risk management evaluation model by machine learning.Through parameter learning,determining the probability of each risk factor Factors were identified.The inverse reasoning function,at the same time using bayesian network model for reverse reasoning and sensitivity analysis,find out some factors known to the state,habitable city old-age real estate project overall risk probability and sensitivity factors,and put forward feasible for key influence factors and sensitivity,reduce the risk of development projects and find out the critical factors.Next,using bayesian network to inverse reasoning and sensitivity analysis,finding out the probability of the risk and sensitivity factors,with some factors known.At last,throwing out the methods of the key influences and sensibility factors to reducing the risk of developing projects.As Yangzhou Shizhu Mountain International Healthy&Pension Community for example,certifying the old-age real estate risk management evaluation model can effectively help the real estate development enterprise of habitable city old-age real to estate the risk assessment and management.The most important is help the enterprise to find reasonable method to avoiding risk or reduce the risk,improve the ability of development,finally improve the market supply.