Research On The Influencing Factors And Forecast Of The Development Of My Country's Insurance Industry

As one of the most important component of finance,insurance industry has an important influence on financing,social stability and economic development.The academic research of the insurance industry can help us understand the development situation of the insurance industry and find the problems which hinder the development of the insurance industry.The study subject of this paper is the development of insurance industry in China,and the 13 th Five-year Plan of the insurance industry is the theoretical direction.With the insurance scale being the actual landing point,the influence factors and prediction methods of property and life insurance premium was mainly analyzed.Elastic network regression and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average was used in this paper.Finally,some suggestions were made on the basis of the conclusions of the study.The development trend of insurance scale,the comparison of insurance scale at home and abroad,the characteristics of different types of insurance,and the difference of insurance scale between different regions were described in the first part.The factors affecting the development of insurance industry was analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively on the basis of the analysis of the status of the insurance industry.Qualitative analysis included economy,society,population,education,law and policy analysis.The influence factors of the property and life insurance premium was analyzed quantitatively by the method of elastic network regression.The results showed that the total investment in fixed assets and per capita disposable income had a positive impact on the property insurance premium,and the total population,the aging rate,the social security and the employment expenditure,and the per capita disposable income had a positive impact on the life insurance premium.However,the impact of per capita GDP and average schooling year on both property insurance and life insurance premiums was relatively small.After that,the prediction of the property and life insurance premium was analyzed by the method of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average.The model showed that the average relative error of the forecast results of the property insurance premium was 4.4%,and the average relative error of the life insurance premium forecast results was 8.85%.Premium income for the next year was forecasted,and the results showed that the premium income would be close to 4000 billion yuan in 2018.The target of 4500 billion yuan would easily be reached in 2020 according to the speed of development.Finally,some suggestions were made on the basis of the conclusions of the study from the levels of insurance demand and supply.