Research On The Complementarity And Influential Factors Of Industrial Trade Between China And Central Asia

Central Asia is an important passage and staging post of the ancient Silk Road,and has always played an important role in the exchange of goods between the East and the West.Central Asia has rich mineral resources and vast geographical area.As the bridge of Asia and Europe,Central Asia has been the important area of China to open the west and welcome the trade cooperation,occupying the special position in the "One Belt and One Road" strategy.Due to historical reasons,the industrial structure in Central Asia is relatively single with heavy industries well developed and light industry lagging behind.In contrast,China has relatively complete industrial category.With the further deepening of industrialization and openness,the level of industrial development level in China has risen sharply.So,Analyzing the trade complementarity and the influencing factors can provide a useful reference for deepening the industrial cooperation between the two sides.Judging from the current status of trade between China and Central Asia,industrial products are absolutely dominant,with a share of over 88% in 2015.China mainly imports mineral products and raw materials from Central Asia,and exports labor-intensive light industrial products and capital-intensive technology-intensive heavy industry products.From the similarity of exports,there is rare competition between the two sides.From the perspective of relative trade advantages,China's industrial products as a whole have the strongest competitiveness,while the capital-intensive and technology-intensive industrial products of Kazakhstan are relatively competitive,and the primary industrial products labor-intensive products of Kyrgyzstan are highly competitive.From the view of trade complementarity,the industrial products of the two sides are highly complementary,and the complementarity of China's exports to Central Asia is greater than that of Central Asia's exports to China,and the complementarity nature is manifested by the complementarity between industries.Then,we conducted regression analysis of the factors influencing the complementarity of trade.From the viewpoint of China's exports,the degree of impact from the largest to the smallest,the order of influence factors is as follows:Differences in science and technology,industrial structure differences,differences in consumer demand and nature resource differences.From the perspective of China's imports,the degree of impact from the largest to the smallest,the order of influence factors is as follows: Market size differences,differences in science and technology,consumer demand differences,product differences and resource endowments differences.Regardless of exports or imports,the impact of consumer demand differences has always been negative.While the impact of technological differences changes with the change of perspective of import and export,but the theoretical significance has not changed.That is,the higher the scientific and technological level of the exporting country,the more the technical content of the exported industrial products,and the stronger complementarity will be.The impact of other factors is always positive.The signs of the coefficients of the above factors are exactly the same as the theoretical expectation.In summary,China and Central Asia can further enhance their cooperation and widen the scope of industrial cooperation through strengthening the trade in complementary industrial products,fully exerting the positive role of complementarity factors,enhancing product difference,increasing the technological content of China's export products,strengthening the development of labor resources,realizing the integration of production and education,further enhancing the cooperation of China and Central Asia in industrial field,actively developing the capacity cooperation and promoting the construction of the free trade area.