| The China-Pakistan-Iran-Turkey International Corridor(CPITC)is an important skeleton of the "Silk Road Economic Belt".This corridor not only connects the Yangtze River Economic Belt “straightly” inward,but also can effectively interconnect with Central Asia,South Asia,the Middle East,and Europe outward.This study is based on the CPITC,and uses a strategic planning perspective to identify the risk factors that affect the normal,unimpeded,orderly,and safe operation of the CPITC after construction and operation qualitatively and quantitatively.The dynamic model is used to assess the degree of the influence of risk factors quantitatively and provides scientific mathematical support for analyzing key factors and proposing targeted risk response strategies.The main research contents and research conclusions of this article are as follows:First of all,define the concept of international corridor operation and classify the factors of corridor operation.As the concept of international corridor operation is defined,analyze the complex international corridor system operating elements.The key elements of international channel operation are analyzed innovatively from the three aspects of strategy,tactics,and operations,laying the foundation for the related research on international corridor operation,and conduct a risk assessment study on the international corridor that are not yet connected through a strategic and forward-looking perspective.As the “One Belt,One Road” strategy continues to deepen,the six major international corridors centered on China require early-stage risk assessment.This study provides feasible,credible and effective research methods for risk identification,risk assessment,risk analysis,and risk response during the rest of the international corridor planning period.Second,in the basic steps of macro strategic risk management,select appropriate methods for risk management research activities.In terms of risk identification,on the basis of the lack of historical data on channel operations,brainstorming and historical event combing methods are used to qualitatively identify operational risk factors from both subjective and objective perspectives,which are of some scientific nature and reference significance to transport corridor risk in the planning phase.The improved Failure Mode and Effect Analysis(FMEA)method was applied to the quantitative identification of risk factors,and the weight index of risk factors with certain credibility was obtained.In terms of risk assessment,a system dynamics model was established,and risk factors were again divided into four subsystems: natural,human,maintenance,and social,based on their sources of risk and scope of influence.The assessment of risk of China,Pakistan,Iran and Turkey were obtained through dynamic evolution on the VENSIM platform.It pointed out that the focus of the long-term operational risks of the CPITC should focus on the human-induced risk factors in Pakistan and Iran,the natural risk factors in China and Pakistan,the maintenance risk factors in the Iran and Pakistan,and the social risk factors in Turkey.In terms of risk analysis,a tail-biting fishbone map analysis method was proposed for analysis of typical risk events.Propose an improved fishbone map based on the three basic elements of risk— the tail-biting fishbone map analysis method creatively for typical and complex risk events,clearly expressing the root cause of impact risk events and impact loss,targeted risk response strategies provide detailed evidence.Finally,based on the formation of the mechanism,characteristics,and laws of key risk factors,different countries should propose countermeasures for the operational risks of CPITC. |
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