The Analysis And Influence Of Local Government Debt On Economic Growth In China

In recent years,local government debt play a positive role in promoting economic development and cope with the crisis,there are some urgent problems,expanding the financial gap and the size of government debt rose sharply has aroused widespread concern,to explore the significance of local government debt on the impact of economic growth further highlights.More and more studies have been made by foreign scholars on the influence of local government debt on economic growth,and a rich research result has been formed.However,because of the different economic and social and political environment,the conclusion of foreign scholars' research does not necessarily reflect the actual situation of our country.Therefore,it is more necessary to study the specific situation in China.At present,based on the data availability,most of the existing researches do not use relevant local government debt data to study,and ignore the regional difference characteristics of the impact of local government debt on economic growth.Therefore,this paper intends to investigate the impact of local government debt on China's economic growth and regional differences from the generalized debts of local governments.To better study the impact of local government debt on economic growth.Firstly,it takes into account the limitations of using the balance of local government debt to measure the size of the debt.Now in the budget constraint equation,join the state-owned enterprises operating budget and other non-budgetary factors,estimate the generalized local government debt in 2005-2015 in China's 30 provinces,and has carried on the descriptive analysis from two aspects of absolute quantity and relative quantity.Then select the key indicators that affect economic growth,and use appropriate spatial econometric models to empirically study the impact of local government debt's spatial and temporal characteristics on economic growth.And taking into account the differences between regions,the threshold effect of government debt on economic growth in the East and the Midwest is further studied.Finally,according to the results of the study,we put forward some pertinent policy suggestions.Through the systematic research and analysis of this paper,the main conclusions are as follows:First,the broad sense of local government debt is larger in general.From the absolute scale,the local government debt has been increasing continuously,and has maintained a relatively fast growth rate.From 2008 to 2013,the debt growth rate is relatively high.In terms of relative size,the debts of Hainan,Beijing and Shanghai in the east are relatively high compared with other provinces;The relative scale of local government debt in the central and western regions has the same trend as that of the eastern region,all of which are approaching to the interval 10%-50%and tend to be stable.Second,the influence of local government debt on economic growth is spatially and dynamically.In terms of spatial characteristics,the impact of government debt on economic growth has a negative impact,while for ordinary panel regression;government debt has a significant positive impact on economic growth.Considering the heterogeneity of time,government debt can stimulate economic growth in the short term,which will impede economic growth in the long run.Third,the threshold effect of government debt has obvious regional differences.In terms of the national sample and the eastern region,the government debt has a non-linear influence on regional economic growth,with the threshold value of 18.62%and 20.2%respectively.However,the government debt in the central and western regions does not have a threshold effect on economic growth.The results show that there is a significant regional difference between government debt and economic growth.